Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor with deep local roots, holds a narrow lead in recent constituency polling over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in the 18 June 2026 Makerfield by-election. Traders assign the highest probability to a Burnham margin above 9 percent, reflecting his incumbency advantages, name recognition, and consolidation of anti-Reform votes, yet the 5-point polling gap and high undecided share keep outcomes below 6 percent competitive. Kenyon's local profile and Reform's focus on immigration and cost-of-living issues sustain support in a seat where the party placed second in 2024, while minor candidates and tactical voting could compress or expand the final spread. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among working-class wards remain the primary variable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMakerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Burnham 9%+ 35%
Burnham 6-9% 21%
Burnham 3-6% 13%
Kenyon <3% 13%
$28,800 Vol.
$28,800 Vol.
Burnham 9%+
35%
Burnham 6-9%
21%
Burnham 3-6%
13%
Burnham <3%
7%
Kenyon <3%
13%
Kenyon 3-6%
6%
Kenyon 6%+
4%
Other
3%
Burnham 9%+ 35%
Burnham 6-9% 21%
Burnham 3-6% 13%
Kenyon <3% 13%
$28,800 Vol.
$28,800 Vol.
Burnham 9%+
$5,915 Vol.
35%
Burnham 6-9%
$3,162 Vol.
21%
Burnham 3-6%
$3,209 Vol.
13%
Burnham <3%
$3,617 Vol.
7%
Kenyon <3%
$2,773 Vol.
13%
Kenyon 3-6%
$2,382 Vol.
6%
Kenyon 6%+
$3,354 Vol.
4%
Other
$4,388 Vol.
3%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor with deep local roots, holds a narrow lead in recent constituency polling over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in the 18 June 2026 Makerfield by-election. Traders assign the highest probability to a Burnham margin above 9 percent, reflecting his incumbency advantages, name recognition, and consolidation of anti-Reform votes, yet the 5-point polling gap and high undecided share keep outcomes below 6 percent competitive. Kenyon's local profile and Reform's focus on immigration and cost-of-living issues sustain support in a seat where the party placed second in 2024, while minor candidates and tactical voting could compress or expand the final spread. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among working-class wards remain the primary variable.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volumen
$28,800Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor with deep local roots, holds a narrow lead in recent constituency polling over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in the 18 June 2026 Makerfield by-election. Traders assign the highest probability to a Burnham margin above 9 percent, reflecting his incumbency advantages, name recognition, and consolidation of anti-Reform votes, yet the 5-point polling gap and high undecided share keep outcomes below 6 percent competitive. Kenyon's local profile and Reform's focus on immigration and cost-of-living issues sustain support in a seat where the party placed second in 2024, while minor candidates and tactical voting could compress or expand the final spread. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among working-class wards remain the primary variable.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$28,800Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor with deep local roots, holds a narrow lead in recent constituency polling over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in the 18 June 2026 Makerfield by-election. Traders assign the highest probability to a Burnham margin above 9 percent, reflecting his incumbency advantages, name recognition, and consolidation of anti-Reform votes, yet the 5-point polling gap and high undecided share keep outcomes below 6 percent competitive. Kenyon's local profile and Reform's focus on immigration and cost-of-living issues sustain support in a seat where the party placed second in 2024, while minor candidates and tactical voting could compress or expand the final spread. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among working-class wards remain the primary variable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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