Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to pretrial detention in Brooklyn. With no trial date set and the next hearing scheduled for June 30, traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting uncertainty over conviction prospects, potential diplomatic resolutions, or successful challenges to the indictment and jurisdiction. The 60+ year bracket ranks second due to the severity of the charges, which carry decades-long or life sentences upon conviction, while mid-range outcomes remain fragmented amid unresolved evidentiary issues, witness credibility concerns in related cases, and the possibility of plea negotiations. Recent court proceedings have shown no shift toward dismissal or expedited resolution, keeping the field wide open.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Hora de prisión de Maduro?
¿Hora de prisión de Maduro?
Sin tiempo en prisión 35%
60+ 25%
20–40 11.3%
<20 11.1%
$567,001 Vol.
$567,001 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sin tiempo en prisión
35%
<20
11%
20–40
11%
40–60
6%
60+
25%
Sin tiempo en prisión 35%
60+ 25%
20–40 11.3%
<20 11.1%
$567,001 Vol.
$567,001 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Sin tiempo en prisión
$382,553 Vol.
35%
<20
$76,691 Vol.
11%
20–40
$50,309 Vol.
11%
40–60
$20,195 Vol.
6%
60+
$37,254 Vol.
25%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to pretrial detention in Brooklyn. With no trial date set and the next hearing scheduled for June 30, traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting uncertainty over conviction prospects, potential diplomatic resolutions, or successful challenges to the indictment and jurisdiction. The 60+ year bracket ranks second due to the severity of the charges, which carry decades-long or life sentences upon conviction, while mid-range outcomes remain fragmented amid unresolved evidentiary issues, witness credibility concerns in related cases, and the possibility of plea negotiations. Recent court proceedings have shown no shift toward dismissal or expedited resolution, keeping the field wide open.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volumen
$567,001Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to pretrial detention in Brooklyn. With no trial date set and the next hearing scheduled for June 30, traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting uncertainty over conviction prospects, potential diplomatic resolutions, or successful challenges to the indictment and jurisdiction. The 60+ year bracket ranks second due to the severity of the charges, which carry decades-long or life sentences upon conviction, while mid-range outcomes remain fragmented amid unresolved evidentiary issues, witness credibility concerns in related cases, and the possibility of plea negotiations. Recent court proceedings have shown no shift toward dismissal or expedited resolution, keeping the field wide open.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$567,001Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation, and weapons charges following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces in Caracas and transfer to pretrial detention in Brooklyn. With no trial date set and the next hearing scheduled for June 30, traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting uncertainty over conviction prospects, potential diplomatic resolutions, or successful challenges to the indictment and jurisdiction. The 60+ year bracket ranks second due to the severity of the charges, which carry decades-long or life sentences upon conviction, while mid-range outcomes remain fragmented amid unresolved evidentiary issues, witness credibility concerns in related cases, and the possibility of plea negotiations. Recent court proceedings have shown no shift toward dismissal or expedited resolution, keeping the field wide open.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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