The dismissal of the Department of Justice investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell without charges underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability that he will not face incarceration before 2027. Launched in late 2025 over his congressional testimony on the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, the probe involved grand jury subpoenas in January 2026 but was quashed by a federal judge in March, who cited a lack of evidence beyond political disagreement; the DOJ formally dropped the matter on April 24. Powell continues to lead monetary policy amid stable Fed funds rate expectations and Treasury yield movements, with no active criminal proceedings or regulatory actions indicating personal liability. Tail risks remain limited to hypothetical future probes tied to policy disputes or post-tenure developments, though none currently appear credible given judicial precedent and institutional safeguards.