Market-implied odds of 97.4% against Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 reflect the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found insufficient evidence to support charges. Powell’s term as chair concluded in May 2026 without indictment, and his remaining governor role through 2028 carries standard legal protections that limit rapid prosecution. The episode stemmed from cost-overrun disputes rather than personal financial misconduct or fraud, with courts previously quashing related subpoenas. Tail-risk scenarios include an unforeseen new referral tied to political shifts, though historical precedent shows such actions rarely escalate to incarceration within months absent clear criminal conduct.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market-implied odds of 97.4% against Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 reflect the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found insufficient evidence to support charges. Powell’s term as chair concluded in May 2026 without indictment, and his remaining governor role through 2028 carries standard legal protections that limit rapid prosecution. The episode stemmed from cost-overrun disputes rather than personal financial misconduct or fraud, with courts previously quashing related subpoenas. Tail-risk scenarios include an unforeseen new referral tied to political shifts, though historical precedent shows such actions rarely escalate to incarceration within months absent clear criminal conduct.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volumen
$4,065Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market-implied odds of 97.4% against Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 reflect the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found insufficient evidence to support charges. Powell’s term as chair concluded in May 2026 without indictment, and his remaining governor role through 2028 carries standard legal protections that limit rapid prosecution. The episode stemmed from cost-overrun disputes rather than personal financial misconduct or fraud, with courts previously quashing related subpoenas. Tail-risk scenarios include an unforeseen new referral tied to political shifts, though historical precedent shows such actions rarely escalate to incarceration within months absent clear criminal conduct.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,065Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Market-implied odds of 97.4% against Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 reflect the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, which found insufficient evidence to support charges. Powell’s term as chair concluded in May 2026 without indictment, and his remaining governor role through 2028 carries standard legal protections that limit rapid prosecution. The episode stemmed from cost-overrun disputes rather than personal financial misconduct or fraud, with courts previously quashing related subpoenas. Tail-risk scenarios include an unforeseen new referral tied to political shifts, though historical precedent shows such actions rarely escalate to incarceration within months absent clear criminal conduct.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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