Ongoing direct military exchanges, including the 2025 Twelve-Day War and renewed 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, have entrenched mutual distrust and left no bilateral diplomatic channel open between Israel and Iran. US-mediated talks with Tehran, recently advancing toward a draft agreement on ceasefire extensions, sanctions relief, and nuclear limits via Pakistani intermediaries, remain separate from Israeli policy, with Jerusalem prioritizing containment of Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and rejecting withdrawal from Lebanon operations. Divergent goals—Iran’s insistence on retaining enrichment and missile capabilities versus Israel’s demands for their dismantlement—plus repeated truce violations sustain low trader expectations for any permanent Israel-Iran accord in the near term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$7,767,042 Vol.
31 jul 2026
30 de junio
9%
31 de julio
18%
$7,767,042 Vol.
30 de junio
$4,750,960 Vol.
9%
31 de julio
$508 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing direct military exchanges, including the 2025 Twelve-Day War and renewed 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, have entrenched mutual distrust and left no bilateral diplomatic channel open between Israel and Iran. US-mediated talks with Tehran, recently advancing toward a draft agreement on ceasefire extensions, sanctions relief, and nuclear limits via Pakistani intermediaries, remain separate from Israeli policy, with Jerusalem prioritizing containment of Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and rejecting withdrawal from Lebanon operations. Divergent goals—Iran’s insistence on retaining enrichment and missile capabilities versus Israel’s demands for their dismantlement—plus repeated truce violations sustain low trader expectations for any permanent Israel-Iran accord in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volumen
$7,767,042Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing direct military exchanges, including the 2025 Twelve-Day War and renewed 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, have entrenched mutual distrust and left no bilateral diplomatic channel open between Israel and Iran. US-mediated talks with Tehran, recently advancing toward a draft agreement on ceasefire extensions, sanctions relief, and nuclear limits via Pakistani intermediaries, remain separate from Israeli policy, with Jerusalem prioritizing containment of Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and rejecting withdrawal from Lebanon operations. Divergent goals—Iran’s insistence on retaining enrichment and missile capabilities versus Israel’s demands for their dismantlement—plus repeated truce violations sustain low trader expectations for any permanent Israel-Iran accord in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,767,042Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing direct military exchanges, including the 2025 Twelve-Day War and renewed 2026 strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, have entrenched mutual distrust and left no bilateral diplomatic channel open between Israel and Iran. US-mediated talks with Tehran, recently advancing toward a draft agreement on ceasefire extensions, sanctions relief, and nuclear limits via Pakistani intermediaries, remain separate from Israeli policy, with Jerusalem prioritizing containment of Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and rejecting withdrawal from Lebanon operations. Divergent goals—Iran’s insistence on retaining enrichment and missile capabilities versus Israel’s demands for their dismantlement—plus repeated truce violations sustain low trader expectations for any permanent Israel-Iran accord in the near term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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