Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including missile exchanges and retaliatory strikes in early June 2026, shapes trader focus on potential Israeli airspace restrictions amid security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority. Major closures occurred in late February and March 2026 after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian drone and missile responses, leading to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben-Gurion Airport and phased, limited reopenings subject to threat evaluations. Recent diplomatic interventions have produced fragile halts in direct exchanges, while operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue, sustaining regional alerts. EASA advisories urge caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through at least late June, with airlines monitoring NOTAMs and rerouting options. Upcoming security reviews, any renewed Iranian actions, or shifts in northern border tensions could influence decisions on full or partial closures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$15,561,661 Vol.
30 jun 2026
June 14
7%
June 15
11%
30 de junio
16%
$15,561,661 Vol.
June 14
$511,364 Vol.
7%
June 15
$5,184,452 Vol.
11%
30 de junio
$2,195,458 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including missile exchanges and retaliatory strikes in early June 2026, shapes trader focus on potential Israeli airspace restrictions amid security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority. Major closures occurred in late February and March 2026 after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian drone and missile responses, leading to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben-Gurion Airport and phased, limited reopenings subject to threat evaluations. Recent diplomatic interventions have produced fragile halts in direct exchanges, while operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue, sustaining regional alerts. EASA advisories urge caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through at least late June, with airlines monitoring NOTAMs and rerouting options. Upcoming security reviews, any renewed Iranian actions, or shifts in northern border tensions could influence decisions on full or partial closures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volumen
$15,561,661Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including missile exchanges and retaliatory strikes in early June 2026, shapes trader focus on potential Israeli airspace restrictions amid security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority. Major closures occurred in late February and March 2026 after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian drone and missile responses, leading to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben-Gurion Airport and phased, limited reopenings subject to threat evaluations. Recent diplomatic interventions have produced fragile halts in direct exchanges, while operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue, sustaining regional alerts. EASA advisories urge caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through at least late June, with airlines monitoring NOTAMs and rerouting options. Upcoming security reviews, any renewed Iranian actions, or shifts in northern border tensions could influence decisions on full or partial closures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$15,561,661Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, including missile exchanges and retaliatory strikes in early June 2026, shapes trader focus on potential Israeli airspace restrictions amid security assessments by the Civil Aviation Authority. Major closures occurred in late February and March 2026 after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian drone and missile responses, leading to broad suspensions of commercial flights at Ben-Gurion Airport and phased, limited reopenings subject to threat evaluations. Recent diplomatic interventions have produced fragile halts in direct exchanges, while operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon continue, sustaining regional alerts. EASA advisories urge caution in the Tel Aviv FIR through at least late June, with airlines monitoring NOTAMs and rerouting options. Upcoming security reviews, any renewed Iranian actions, or shifts in northern border tensions could influence decisions on full or partial closures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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