Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian restrictions, toll proposals, and naval control measures since early 2026, continue to shape trader views. Despite conditional ceasefires and bilateral talks mediated partly by Pakistan and Oman, Iran has maintained limits on passage and resisted full unrestricted access demanded by the US. Recent reports of stalled framework agreements, drone incidents near the strait, and mutual accusations of violations have reinforced skepticism that Tehran will commit to unrestricted shipping by the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus on the "No" outcome reflects these persistent barriers and short timeline, with any final deal hinging on unresolved issues around control, tolls, and enforcement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán acepta el envío sin restricciones a través de Ormuz antes del 30 de junio?
¿Irán acepta el envío sin restricciones a través de Ormuz antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$304,776 Vol.
$304,776 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$304,776 Vol.
$304,776 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian restrictions, toll proposals, and naval control measures since early 2026, continue to shape trader views. Despite conditional ceasefires and bilateral talks mediated partly by Pakistan and Oman, Iran has maintained limits on passage and resisted full unrestricted access demanded by the US. Recent reports of stalled framework agreements, drone incidents near the strait, and mutual accusations of violations have reinforced skepticism that Tehran will commit to unrestricted shipping by the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus on the "No" outcome reflects these persistent barriers and short timeline, with any final deal hinging on unresolved issues around control, tolls, and enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$304,776Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian restrictions, toll proposals, and naval control measures since early 2026, continue to shape trader views. Despite conditional ceasefires and bilateral talks mediated partly by Pakistan and Oman, Iran has maintained limits on passage and resisted full unrestricted access demanded by the US. Recent reports of stalled framework agreements, drone incidents near the strait, and mutual accusations of violations have reinforced skepticism that Tehran will commit to unrestricted shipping by the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus on the "No" outcome reflects these persistent barriers and short timeline, with any final deal hinging on unresolved issues around control, tolls, and enforcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.
A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.
An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$304,784Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian restrictions, toll proposals, and naval control measures since early 2026, continue to shape trader views. Despite conditional ceasefires and bilateral talks mediated partly by Pakistan and Oman, Iran has maintained limits on passage and resisted full unrestricted access demanded by the US. Recent reports of stalled framework agreements, drone incidents near the strait, and mutual accusations of violations have reinforced skepticism that Tehran will commit to unrestricted shipping by the June 30 deadline. Trader consensus on the "No" outcome reflects these persistent barriers and short timeline, with any final deal hinging on unresolved issues around control, tolls, and enforcement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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