Trader consensus gives Howard Lutnick a 55% implied probability of remaining Commerce Secretary through December 31, 2026, reflecting his continued active role despite persistent pressures. Lutnick, confirmed by the Senate in February 2025 on a 51-45 vote, recently testified before House and Senate Appropriations subcommittees in mid-to-late April 2026, defending the Trump administration's fiscal year 2027 budget request amid heated clashes with lawmakers over spending priorities and trade policy. He advocated reconsidering the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, signaling alignment with administration tariff goals. Earlier bipartisan calls for his resignation in February 2026 over disclosed Epstein ties have subsided without action, though reports of President Trump's frustration and ongoing congressional scrutiny sustain a competitive 45% chance of departure via resignation, firing, or cabinet reshuffle before year-end.