El Niño conditions, now established in the equatorial Pacific with further strengthening expected, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward lower July tornado counts by shifting the jet stream and reducing vertical wind shear and instability across prime severe-weather corridors. Historical data show July averages 100–150 confirmed tornadoes nationally, with recent El Niño periods correlating to suppressed activity relative to La Niña years; 2024’s above-average July total of 210 occurred under different ENSO-neutral influences. Key variables for July resolution include Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures, elevated mixed-layer moisture, and any tropical cyclone contributions. Upcoming CPC seasonal updates and SPC monthly outlooks will refine model consensus on these thresholds, sustaining close market probabilities between sub-100 and 100–129 outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
<100 38%
100–129 38%
310+ 27%
130–159 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<100
38%
100–129
38%
130–159
25%
160–189
24%
190–219
25%
220–249
22%
250–279
22%
280–310
25%
310+
27%
<100 38%
100–129 38%
310+ 27%
130–159 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<100
$30 Vol.
38%
100–129
$44 Vol.
38%
130–159
$78 Vol.
25%
160–189
$40 Vol.
24%
190–219
$41 Vol.
25%
220–249
$33 Vol.
22%
250–279
$53 Vol.
22%
280–310
$131 Vol.
25%
310+
$40 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now established in the equatorial Pacific with further strengthening expected, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward lower July tornado counts by shifting the jet stream and reducing vertical wind shear and instability across prime severe-weather corridors. Historical data show July averages 100–150 confirmed tornadoes nationally, with recent El Niño periods correlating to suppressed activity relative to La Niña years; 2024’s above-average July total of 210 occurred under different ENSO-neutral influences. Key variables for July resolution include Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures, elevated mixed-layer moisture, and any tropical cyclone contributions. Upcoming CPC seasonal updates and SPC monthly outlooks will refine model consensus on these thresholds, sustaining close market probabilities between sub-100 and 100–129 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volumen
$489Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now established in the equatorial Pacific with further strengthening expected, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward lower July tornado counts by shifting the jet stream and reducing vertical wind shear and instability across prime severe-weather corridors. Historical data show July averages 100–150 confirmed tornadoes nationally, with recent El Niño periods correlating to suppressed activity relative to La Niña years; 2024’s above-average July total of 210 occurred under different ENSO-neutral influences. Key variables for July resolution include Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures, elevated mixed-layer moisture, and any tropical cyclone contributions. Upcoming CPC seasonal updates and SPC monthly outlooks will refine model consensus on these thresholds, sustaining close market probabilities between sub-100 and 100–129 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$489Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now established in the equatorial Pacific with further strengthening expected, represent the dominant driver tilting trader sentiment toward lower July tornado counts by shifting the jet stream and reducing vertical wind shear and instability across prime severe-weather corridors. Historical data show July averages 100–150 confirmed tornadoes nationally, with recent El Niño periods correlating to suppressed activity relative to La Niña years; 2024’s above-average July total of 210 occurred under different ENSO-neutral influences. Key variables for July resolution include Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures, elevated mixed-layer moisture, and any tropical cyclone contributions. Upcoming CPC seasonal updates and SPC monthly outlooks will refine model consensus on these thresholds, sustaining close market probabilities between sub-100 and 100–129 outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes