Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of development by July according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, represent the primary driver behind trader sentiment favoring lower tornado counts. This shift from recent La Niña patterns typically reduces atmospheric instability and wind shear across the central and northern Plains, where July activity often concentrates, leading to fewer supercell opportunities compared to neutral or La Niña years. Historical data place the 1991–2020 July average near 119 tornadoes, aligning closely with the tightly contested market-implied probabilities around 100–129 and sub-100 outcomes. Model consensus and early summer steering patterns add uncertainty, as rapid ENSO evolution could still alter convective environments before month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en julio?
100–129 42%
<100 42%
310+ 36%
280–310 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<100
42%
100–129
42%
130–159
24%
160–189
24%
190–219
24%
220–249
24%
250–279
23%
280–310
23%
310+
36%
100–129 42%
<100 42%
310+ 36%
280–310 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ago 2026
<100
$22 Vol.
42%
100–129
$44 Vol.
42%
130–159
$59 Vol.
24%
160–189
$40 Vol.
24%
190–219
$41 Vol.
24%
220–249
$33 Vol.
24%
250–279
$42 Vol.
23%
280–310
$102 Vol.
23%
310+
$40 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of development by July according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, represent the primary driver behind trader sentiment favoring lower tornado counts. This shift from recent La Niña patterns typically reduces atmospheric instability and wind shear across the central and northern Plains, where July activity often concentrates, leading to fewer supercell opportunities compared to neutral or La Niña years. Historical data place the 1991–2020 July average near 119 tornadoes, aligning closely with the tightly contested market-implied probabilities around 100–129 and sub-100 outcomes. Model consensus and early summer steering patterns add uncertainty, as rapid ENSO evolution could still alter convective environments before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volumen
$422Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of development by July according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, represent the primary driver behind trader sentiment favoring lower tornado counts. This shift from recent La Niña patterns typically reduces atmospheric instability and wind shear across the central and northern Plains, where July activity often concentrates, leading to fewer supercell opportunities compared to neutral or La Niña years. Historical data place the 1991–2020 July average near 119 tornadoes, aligning closely with the tightly contested market-implied probabilities around 100–129 and sub-100 outcomes. Model consensus and early summer steering patterns add uncertainty, as rapid ENSO evolution could still alter convective environments before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$422Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions, with an 82% probability of development by July according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, represent the primary driver behind trader sentiment favoring lower tornado counts. This shift from recent La Niña patterns typically reduces atmospheric instability and wind shear across the central and northern Plains, where July activity often concentrates, leading to fewer supercell opportunities compared to neutral or La Niña years. Historical data place the 1991–2020 July average near 119 tornadoes, aligning closely with the tightly contested market-implied probabilities around 100–129 and sub-100 outcomes. Model consensus and early summer steering patterns add uncertainty, as rapid ENSO evolution could still alter convective environments before month-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes