Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through late April 2026 tallies 247 confirmed tornadoes for the month—well above the 1991–2020 average of 182—fueled by multiple outbreaks, including 28 on April 14 across the Midwest, over 50 from the April 17 Upper Midwest event, and 18 on April 27 in the Plains. Trader consensus splits closely between 260–289 (49.5% implied probability) and 290–319 (41.5%), reflecting uncertainty in ongoing National Weather Service damage surveys that could confirm or downgrade dozens of remaining preliminary reports from the April 23–28 sequence amid high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Final resolution hinges on National Centers for Environmental Information tallies, with minimal activity in the last 48 hours limiting upside risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en abril?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en abril?
290–319 41.4%
230–259 3.9%
350+ 3.7%
200–229 3.4%
$55,795 Vol.
$55,795 Vol.
10 may 2026
<140
<1%
140–169
<1%
170–199
<1%
200–229
3%
230–259
4%
260–289
51%
290–319
41%
320–350
31%
350+
4%
290–319 41.4%
230–259 3.9%
350+ 3.7%
200–229 3.4%
$55,795 Vol.
$55,795 Vol.
10 may 2026
<140
$10,584 Vol.
<1%
140–169
$15,799 Vol.
<1%
170–199
$1,893 Vol.
<1%
200–229
$1,108 Vol.
3%
230–259
$2,847 Vol.
4%
260–289
$268 Vol.
51%
290–319
$475 Vol.
41%
320–350
$299 Vol.
31%
350+
$22,523 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through late April 2026 tallies 247 confirmed tornadoes for the month—well above the 1991–2020 average of 182—fueled by multiple outbreaks, including 28 on April 14 across the Midwest, over 50 from the April 17 Upper Midwest event, and 18 on April 27 in the Plains. Trader consensus splits closely between 260–289 (49.5% implied probability) and 290–319 (41.5%), reflecting uncertainty in ongoing National Weather Service damage surveys that could confirm or downgrade dozens of remaining preliminary reports from the April 23–28 sequence amid high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Final resolution hinges on National Centers for Environmental Information tallies, with minimal activity in the last 48 hours limiting upside risk.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volumen
$55,795Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through late April 2026 tallies 247 confirmed tornadoes for the month—well above the 1991–2020 average of 182—fueled by multiple outbreaks, including 28 on April 14 across the Midwest, over 50 from the April 17 Upper Midwest event, and 18 on April 27 in the Plains. Trader consensus splits closely between 260–289 (49.5% implied probability) and 290–319 (41.5%), reflecting uncertainty in ongoing National Weather Service damage surveys that could confirm or downgrade dozens of remaining preliminary reports from the April 23–28 sequence amid high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Final resolution hinges on National Centers for Environmental Information tallies, with minimal activity in the last 48 hours limiting upside risk.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$55,795Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary Storm Prediction Center data through late April 2026 tallies 247 confirmed tornadoes for the month—well above the 1991–2020 average of 182—fueled by multiple outbreaks, including 28 on April 14 across the Midwest, over 50 from the April 17 Upper Midwest event, and 18 on April 27 in the Plains. Trader consensus splits closely between 260–289 (49.5% implied probability) and 290–319 (41.5%), reflecting uncertainty in ongoing National Weather Service damage surveys that could confirm or downgrade dozens of remaining preliminary reports from the April 23–28 sequence amid high instability, wind shear, and Gulf moisture influx. Final resolution hinges on National Centers for Environmental Information tallies, with minimal activity in the last 48 hours limiting upside risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes