**Ongoing US-Iran conflict since late February 2026 has suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of pre-war levels of roughly 130-160 vessels daily.** Maritime data and tracking sources indicate average daily transits have fallen to low single digits or near zero in recent periods, driven by security risks, insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and the need for military escorts amid reported incidents and blockades. For the week of June 8, trader consensus favors the 25-49 range at 70% implied probability, reflecting a modest pickup in escorted movements—particularly via safer U.S.-guided lanes—yet persistent caution that keeps volumes well below historical norms. The sub-25 bracket at 30.5% prices in downside scenarios of renewed disruptions or stalled de-escalation. Official commentary, including U.S. Energy Secretary remarks on traffic rising "very meaningfully," supports the gradual recovery narrative, while live trackers showing intermittent low activity align with these market-implied odds. Key near-term catalysts include any further diplomatic signals or military developments that could shift routing incentives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
25-49 68%
<25 30%
50-74 1.0%
100+ 1.0%
$41,810 Vol.
$41,810 Vol.
14 jun 2026
<25
30%
25-49
68%
50-74
1%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 68%
<25 30%
50-74 1.0%
100+ 1.0%
$41,810 Vol.
$41,810 Vol.
14 jun 2026
<25
$11,950 Vol.
30%
25-49
$7,307 Vol.
68%
50-74
$3,996 Vol.
1%
75-99
$3,332 Vol.
1%
100+
$15,441 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict since late February 2026 has suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of pre-war levels of roughly 130-160 vessels daily.** Maritime data and tracking sources indicate average daily transits have fallen to low single digits or near zero in recent periods, driven by security risks, insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and the need for military escorts amid reported incidents and blockades.
For the week of June 8, trader consensus favors the 25-49 range at 70% implied probability, reflecting a modest pickup in escorted movements—particularly via safer U.S.-guided lanes—yet persistent caution that keeps volumes well below historical norms. The sub-25 bracket at 30.5% prices in downside scenarios of renewed disruptions or stalled de-escalation. Official commentary, including U.S. Energy Secretary remarks on traffic rising "very meaningfully," supports the gradual recovery narrative, while live trackers showing intermittent low activity align with these market-implied odds. Key near-term catalysts include any further diplomatic signals or military developments that could shift routing incentives.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volumen
$41,810Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict since late February 2026 has suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of pre-war levels of roughly 130-160 vessels daily.** Maritime data and tracking sources indicate average daily transits have fallen to low single digits or near zero in recent periods, driven by security risks, insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and the need for military escorts amid reported incidents and blockades.
For the week of June 8, trader consensus favors the 25-49 range at 70% implied probability, reflecting a modest pickup in escorted movements—particularly via safer U.S.-guided lanes—yet persistent caution that keeps volumes well below historical norms. The sub-25 bracket at 30.5% prices in downside scenarios of renewed disruptions or stalled de-escalation. Official commentary, including U.S. Energy Secretary remarks on traffic rising "very meaningfully," supports the gradual recovery narrative, while live trackers showing intermittent low activity align with these market-implied odds. Key near-term catalysts include any further diplomatic signals or military developments that could shift routing incentives.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$41,810Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict since late February 2026 has suppressed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a fraction of pre-war levels of roughly 130-160 vessels daily.** Maritime data and tracking sources indicate average daily transits have fallen to low single digits or near zero in recent periods, driven by security risks, insurance cancellations, carrier suspensions, and the need for military escorts amid reported incidents and blockades. For the week of June 8, trader consensus favors the 25-49 range at 70% implied probability, reflecting a modest pickup in escorted movements—particularly via safer U.S.-guided lanes—yet persistent caution that keeps volumes well below historical norms. The sub-25 bracket at 30.5% prices in downside scenarios of renewed disruptions or stalled de-escalation. Official commentary, including U.S. Energy Secretary remarks on traffic rising "very meaningfully," supports the gradual recovery narrative, while live trackers showing intermittent low activity align with these market-implied odds. Key near-term catalysts include any further diplomatic signals or military developments that could shift routing incentives.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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