Trader consensus overwhelmingly implies an 97% probability for exactly two countries—reflecting verified Israeli Air Force airstrikes on Iranian air defenses and petrochemical facilities like Khondab early in April, just before the US-brokered ceasefire announcement around April 8, alongside persistent IDF drone strikes, artillery shelling, and major operations such as Eternal Darkness targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon through April 28 and into April 30. No credible reports confirm actions against additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen, with diplomatic pressures and the April 30 resolution deadline minimizing escalation risks. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight ET could challenge this, though US mediation and Hezbollah ceasefire strains make it unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Contra cuántos países llevará a cabo Israel una acción militar en abril?
¿Contra cuántos países llevará a cabo Israel una acción militar en abril?
2 97.0%
3 2.5%
≥4 <1%
$161,662 Vol.
$161,662 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2
97%
3
2%
≥4
<1%
2 97.0%
3 2.5%
≥4 <1%
$161,662 Vol.
$161,662 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2
$51,892 Vol.
97%
3
$42,966 Vol.
2%
≥4
$59,338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly implies an 97% probability for exactly two countries—reflecting verified Israeli Air Force airstrikes on Iranian air defenses and petrochemical facilities like Khondab early in April, just before the US-brokered ceasefire announcement around April 8, alongside persistent IDF drone strikes, artillery shelling, and major operations such as Eternal Darkness targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon through April 28 and into April 30. No credible reports confirm actions against additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen, with diplomatic pressures and the April 30 resolution deadline minimizing escalation risks. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight ET could challenge this, though US mediation and Hezbollah ceasefire strains make it unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$161,662Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly implies an 97% probability for exactly two countries—reflecting verified Israeli Air Force airstrikes on Iranian air defenses and petrochemical facilities like Khondab early in April, just before the US-brokered ceasefire announcement around April 8, alongside persistent IDF drone strikes, artillery shelling, and major operations such as Eternal Darkness targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon through April 28 and into April 30. No credible reports confirm actions against additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen, with diplomatic pressures and the April 30 resolution deadline minimizing escalation risks. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight ET could challenge this, though US mediation and Hezbollah ceasefire strains make it unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$161,662Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly implies an 97% probability for exactly two countries—reflecting verified Israeli Air Force airstrikes on Iranian air defenses and petrochemical facilities like Khondab early in April, just before the US-brokered ceasefire announcement around April 8, alongside persistent IDF drone strikes, artillery shelling, and major operations such as Eternal Darkness targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon through April 28 and into April 30. No credible reports confirm actions against additional sovereign states like Syria or Yemen, with diplomatic pressures and the April 30 resolution deadline minimizing escalation risks. Late-breaking airstrikes on a third country before midnight ET could challenge this, though US mediation and Hezbollah ceasefire strains make it unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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