**Latest numerical weather prediction consensus from MetService New Zealand and supporting global models has tightened around a 16–17°C daily maximum for Wellington on June 15, explaining the market’s dominant pricing on those two outcomes.** Winter climatology places typical June highs near 13–14°C, yet a persistent mild northerly or northwesterly flow has sustained above-average readings in recent days, including a confirmed 17°C peak on June 14. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs converging on peak afternoon temperatures in the 15–17°C band under partly cloudy conditions and moderate winds that limit both strong warming and rapid cooling. The 52% and 40.5% implied probabilities reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow, model-supported window rather than any extreme deviation. Resolution hinges on the official MetService observation at Wellington’s recording site; any final model update overnight or early on the 15th could shift the narrow 1°C band before the afternoon maximum is recorded.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on June 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 15?
17°C 53%
16°C 41%
18°C 8%
15°C 2.2%
NUEVO
$14,463 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,463 Vol.
15 jun 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
41%
17°C
53%
18°C
8%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 53%
16°C 41%
18°C 8%
15°C 2.2%
NUEVO
$14,463 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,463 Vol.
15 jun 2026
11°C or below
$167 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$365 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,254 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$3,051 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,431 Vol.
2%
16°C
$875 Vol.
41%
17°C
$2,387 Vol.
53%
18°C
$1,160 Vol.
8%
19°C
$806 Vol.
1%
20°C
$647 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction consensus from MetService New Zealand and supporting global models has tightened around a 16–17°C daily maximum for Wellington on June 15, explaining the market’s dominant pricing on those two outcomes.**
Winter climatology places typical June highs near 13–14°C, yet a persistent mild northerly or northwesterly flow has sustained above-average readings in recent days, including a confirmed 17°C peak on June 14. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs converging on peak afternoon temperatures in the 15–17°C band under partly cloudy conditions and moderate winds that limit both strong warming and rapid cooling. The 52% and 40.5% implied probabilities reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow, model-supported window rather than any extreme deviation. Resolution hinges on the official MetService observation at Wellington’s recording site; any final model update overnight or early on the 15th could shift the narrow 1°C band before the afternoon maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$14,463Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction consensus from MetService New Zealand and supporting global models has tightened around a 16–17°C daily maximum for Wellington on June 15, explaining the market’s dominant pricing on those two outcomes.**
Winter climatology places typical June highs near 13–14°C, yet a persistent mild northerly or northwesterly flow has sustained above-average readings in recent days, including a confirmed 17°C peak on June 14. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs converging on peak afternoon temperatures in the 15–17°C band under partly cloudy conditions and moderate winds that limit both strong warming and rapid cooling. The 52% and 40.5% implied probabilities reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow, model-supported window rather than any extreme deviation. Resolution hinges on the official MetService observation at Wellington’s recording site; any final model update overnight or early on the 15th could shift the narrow 1°C band before the afternoon maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$14,463Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction consensus from MetService New Zealand and supporting global models has tightened around a 16–17°C daily maximum for Wellington on June 15, explaining the market’s dominant pricing on those two outcomes.** Winter climatology places typical June highs near 13–14°C, yet a persistent mild northerly or northwesterly flow has sustained above-average readings in recent days, including a confirmed 17°C peak on June 14. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs converging on peak afternoon temperatures in the 15–17°C band under partly cloudy conditions and moderate winds that limit both strong warming and rapid cooling. The 52% and 40.5% implied probabilities reflect traders’ assessment of this narrow, model-supported window rather than any extreme deviation. Resolution hinges on the official MetService observation at Wellington’s recording site; any final model update overnight or early on the 15th could shift the narrow 1°C band before the afternoon maximum is recorded.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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