Current MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum for Wellington on June 15 under northerly flow ahead of an approaching front, directly supporting the market’s near-even split between 16°C (41%) and 17°C (51.5%) implied probabilities. These outcomes align with numerical weather prediction consensus for winter conditions, where northerly advection of milder maritime air can elevate daytime highs several degrees above the June climatological average of roughly 13°C at Wellington International Airport. An incoming front introduces uncertainty in exact peak temperature and timing, keeping lower (15°C or below) and higher (18°C+) outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA also favor near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with the tight clustering around 16–17°C. Updated model runs and official forecast revisions through the day will remain the key drivers of any further shifts in trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on June 15?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 15?
17°C 52%
16°C 41%
18°C 8%
15°C 2.6%
NUEVO
$14,172 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,172 Vol.
15 jun 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
41%
17°C
52%
18°C
8%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 52%
16°C 41%
18°C 8%
15°C 2.6%
NUEVO
$14,172 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,172 Vol.
15 jun 2026
11°C or below
$167 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$365 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,254 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$3,051 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,290 Vol.
3%
16°C
$818 Vol.
41%
17°C
$2,372 Vol.
52%
18°C
$1,160 Vol.
8%
19°C
$796 Vol.
1%
20°C
$647 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum for Wellington on June 15 under northerly flow ahead of an approaching front, directly supporting the market’s near-even split between 16°C (41%) and 17°C (51.5%) implied probabilities. These outcomes align with numerical weather prediction consensus for winter conditions, where northerly advection of milder maritime air can elevate daytime highs several degrees above the June climatological average of roughly 13°C at Wellington International Airport. An incoming front introduces uncertainty in exact peak temperature and timing, keeping lower (15°C or below) and higher (18°C+) outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA also favor near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with the tight clustering around 16–17°C. Updated model runs and official forecast revisions through the day will remain the key drivers of any further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$14,172Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum for Wellington on June 15 under northerly flow ahead of an approaching front, directly supporting the market’s near-even split between 16°C (41%) and 17°C (51.5%) implied probabilities. These outcomes align with numerical weather prediction consensus for winter conditions, where northerly advection of milder maritime air can elevate daytime highs several degrees above the June climatological average of roughly 13°C at Wellington International Airport. An incoming front introduces uncertainty in exact peak temperature and timing, keeping lower (15°C or below) and higher (18°C+) outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA also favor near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with the tight clustering around 16–17°C. Updated model runs and official forecast revisions through the day will remain the key drivers of any further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$14,172Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current MetService guidance indicates a 16°C maximum for Wellington on June 15 under northerly flow ahead of an approaching front, directly supporting the market’s near-even split between 16°C (41%) and 17°C (51.5%) implied probabilities. These outcomes align with numerical weather prediction consensus for winter conditions, where northerly advection of milder maritime air can elevate daytime highs several degrees above the June climatological average of roughly 13°C at Wellington International Airport. An incoming front introduces uncertainty in exact peak temperature and timing, keeping lower (15°C or below) and higher (18°C+) outcomes at low single-digit probabilities. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA also favor near-average temperatures for the region, consistent with the tight clustering around 16–17°C. Updated model runs and official forecast revisions through the day will remain the key drivers of any further shifts in trader positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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