Recent forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models position Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35°C under mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds, driving the market’s overwhelming 100% implied probability for exactly 35°C. This outcome aligns with observed early-June warmth exceeding seasonal baselines of 28–29°C, amplified by urban heat-island effects and peak solar insolation before any afternoon thundershowers develop. Model consensus shows modest upside potential from delayed convection, though earlier or more widespread storms could cap readings at 34°C or below. Updated afternoon observations and official AEMET verification will determine final resolution against the precise daily maximum threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 14?
35°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$95,211 Vol.
$95,211 Vol.
14 jun 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
100%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$95,211 Vol.
$95,211 Vol.
14 jun 2026
31°C or below
$3,991 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,836 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$10,762 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$24,166 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$16,941 Vol.
100%
36°C
$17,345 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$8,980 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$2,264 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$1,021 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$1,016 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models position Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35°C under mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds, driving the market’s overwhelming 100% implied probability for exactly 35°C. This outcome aligns with observed early-June warmth exceeding seasonal baselines of 28–29°C, amplified by urban heat-island effects and peak solar insolation before any afternoon thundershowers develop. Model consensus shows modest upside potential from delayed convection, though earlier or more widespread storms could cap readings at 34°C or below. Updated afternoon observations and official AEMET verification will determine final resolution against the precise daily maximum threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$95,211Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models position Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35°C under mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds, driving the market’s overwhelming 100% implied probability for exactly 35°C. This outcome aligns with observed early-June warmth exceeding seasonal baselines of 28–29°C, amplified by urban heat-island effects and peak solar insolation before any afternoon thundershowers develop. Model consensus shows modest upside potential from delayed convection, though earlier or more widespread storms could cap readings at 34°C or below. Updated afternoon observations and official AEMET verification will determine final resolution against the precise daily maximum threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$95,211Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models position Madrid’s June 14 maximum near 34–35°C under mostly sunny conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds, driving the market’s overwhelming 100% implied probability for exactly 35°C. This outcome aligns with observed early-June warmth exceeding seasonal baselines of 28–29°C, amplified by urban heat-island effects and peak solar insolation before any afternoon thundershowers develop. Model consensus shows modest upside potential from delayed convection, though earlier or more widespread storms could cap readings at 34°C or below. Updated afternoon observations and official AEMET verification will determine final resolution against the precise daily maximum threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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