Trader consensus on a 99% implied probability for FISA Section 702 reauthorization before expiration reflects Congress's last-minute action on April 30, 2026, when the Senate approved a clean 45-day extension by unanimous consent, followed by House passage 261-111 and President Trump's signature, pushing the deadline to June 12 amid prior short-term stopgaps that prevented lapse from the April 20 sunset. Intelligence agencies emphasized the provision's critical role in foreign surveillance, overriding privacy concerns and demands for warrant requirements from some Republicans and Democrats, consistent with bipartisan patterns in 2024's renewal. Realistic upset scenarios include a legal challenge to the extension, Senate filibuster on longer-term bills, or linkage to spending fights risking shutdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
$33,803 Vol.
$33,803 Vol.
30 abr 2026
$33,803 Vol.
$33,803 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 99% implied probability for FISA Section 702 reauthorization before expiration reflects Congress's last-minute action on April 30, 2026, when the Senate approved a clean 45-day extension by unanimous consent, followed by House passage 261-111 and President Trump's signature, pushing the deadline to June 12 amid prior short-term stopgaps that prevented lapse from the April 20 sunset. Intelligence agencies emphasized the provision's critical role in foreign surveillance, overriding privacy concerns and demands for warrant requirements from some Republicans and Democrats, consistent with bipartisan patterns in 2024's renewal. Realistic upset scenarios include a legal challenge to the extension, Senate filibuster on longer-term bills, or linkage to spending fights risking shutdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 20, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Volumen
$33,803Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 99% implied probability for FISA Section 702 reauthorization before expiration reflects Congress's last-minute action on April 30, 2026, when the Senate approved a clean 45-day extension by unanimous consent, followed by House passage 261-111 and President Trump's signature, pushing the deadline to June 12 amid prior short-term stopgaps that prevented lapse from the April 20 sunset. Intelligence agencies emphasized the provision's critical role in foreign surveillance, overriding privacy concerns and demands for warrant requirements from some Republicans and Democrats, consistent with bipartisan patterns in 2024's renewal. Realistic upset scenarios include a legal challenge to the extension, Senate filibuster on longer-term bills, or linkage to spending fights risking shutdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying legislation includes Public Law 118-49.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$33,803Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 99% implied probability for FISA Section 702 reauthorization before expiration reflects Congress's last-minute action on April 30, 2026, when the Senate approved a clean 45-day extension by unanimous consent, followed by House passage 261-111 and President Trump's signature, pushing the deadline to June 12 amid prior short-term stopgaps that prevented lapse from the April 20 sunset. Intelligence agencies emphasized the provision's critical role in foreign surveillance, overriding privacy concerns and demands for warrant requirements from some Republicans and Democrats, consistent with bipartisan patterns in 2024's renewal. Realistic upset scenarios include a legal challenge to the extension, Senate filibuster on longer-term bills, or linkage to spending fights risking shutdown.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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