Amid ongoing cabinet turnover in President Trump's second term, traders price a 56% chance of another major US official departing by May 31, driven by recent high-profile exits including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 20 amid a federal misconduct investigation, Navy Secretary John Phelan on April 23, and earlier ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Reports of White House discussions on potential further changes involving FBI Director Kash Patel and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, alongside acting officials like ICE Director Todd Lyons planning May exits, reflect trader consensus on continued shakeups amid policy frictions and internal probes, though no confirmations have emerged in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid ongoing cabinet turnover in President Trump's second term, traders price a 56% chance of another major US official departing by May 31, driven by recent high-profile exits including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 20 amid a federal misconduct investigation, Navy Secretary John Phelan on April 23, and earlier ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Reports of White House discussions on potential further changes involving FBI Director Kash Patel and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, alongside acting officials like ICE Director Todd Lyons planning May exits, reflect trader consensus on continued shakeups amid policy frictions and internal probes, though no confirmations have emerged in the past week.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$1,702Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid ongoing cabinet turnover in President Trump's second term, traders price a 56% chance of another major US official departing by May 31, driven by recent high-profile exits including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 20 amid a federal misconduct investigation, Navy Secretary John Phelan on April 23, and earlier ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Reports of White House discussions on potential further changes involving FBI Director Kash Patel and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, alongside acting officials like ICE Director Todd Lyons planning May exits, reflect trader consensus on continued shakeups amid policy frictions and internal probes, though no confirmations have emerged in the past week.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The included positions are:
- President of the United States
- Vice-President of the United States
- United States Cabinet Member
- United States Senator
- U.S. Representative
- Governor of a US State
- Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military
- Chair of the Federal Reserve
- Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
- Supreme Court Justice
- FBI Director
- Speaker of the House
- Senate Majority Leader
- Senate Minority Leader
- House Majority Leader
- House Minority Leader
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included.
A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify.
If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,611Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing cabinet turnover in President Trump's second term, traders price a 56% chance of another major US official departing by May 31, driven by recent high-profile exits including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 20 amid a federal misconduct investigation, Navy Secretary John Phelan on April 23, and earlier ousters of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Reports of White House discussions on potential further changes involving FBI Director Kash Patel and Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, alongside acting officials like ICE Director Todd Lyons planning May exits, reflect trader consensus on continued shakeups amid policy frictions and internal probes, though no confirmations have emerged in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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