Recent polls, including the Genial/Quaest survey from April 24-28 showing Ciro Gomes at 41% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32% in a first-round scenario, underpin trader consensus pricing Ciro as the clear frontrunner at 46% implied probability for the October 4 Ceará gubernatorial election. Ciro's lead stems from his prior governorship and consistent polling strength around 41-47% across Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel, while Elmano's 26.5% reflects weaker first-round showings and PT debates favoring Senator Camilo Santana, who edges Ciro in some runoffs. Roberto Cláudio (13.8%) and Eduardo Girão (13.2%) trail with niche support peaking at 16% absent top rivals, as coalition talks and Ciro's pending May decision on a presidential bid introduce volatility ahead of a potential October 25 runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 45%
Elmano de Freitas 27%
Eduardo Girão 17.1%
Roberto Cláudio 13.6%
$16,086 Vol.
$16,086 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ciro Gomes
45%
Elmano de Freitas
27%
Eduardo Girão
17%
Roberto Cláudio
14%
Capitão Wagner
4%
Camilo Santana
3%
Ciro Gomes 45%
Elmano de Freitas 27%
Eduardo Girão 17.1%
Roberto Cláudio 13.6%
$16,086 Vol.
$16,086 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ciro Gomes
$10,773 Vol.
45%
Elmano de Freitas
$2,173 Vol.
27%
Eduardo Girão
$709 Vol.
17%
Roberto Cláudio
$619 Vol.
14%
Capitão Wagner
$987 Vol.
4%
Camilo Santana
$824 Vol.
3%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls, including the Genial/Quaest survey from April 24-28 showing Ciro Gomes at 41% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32% in a first-round scenario, underpin trader consensus pricing Ciro as the clear frontrunner at 46% implied probability for the October 4 Ceará gubernatorial election. Ciro's lead stems from his prior governorship and consistent polling strength around 41-47% across Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel, while Elmano's 26.5% reflects weaker first-round showings and PT debates favoring Senator Camilo Santana, who edges Ciro in some runoffs. Roberto Cláudio (13.8%) and Eduardo Girão (13.2%) trail with niche support peaking at 16% absent top rivals, as coalition talks and Ciro's pending May decision on a presidential bid introduce volatility ahead of a potential October 25 runoff.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$16,086Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls, including the Genial/Quaest survey from April 24-28 showing Ciro Gomes at 41% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32% in a first-round scenario, underpin trader consensus pricing Ciro as the clear frontrunner at 46% implied probability for the October 4 Ceará gubernatorial election. Ciro's lead stems from his prior governorship and consistent polling strength around 41-47% across Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel, while Elmano's 26.5% reflects weaker first-round showings and PT debates favoring Senator Camilo Santana, who edges Ciro in some runoffs. Roberto Cláudio (13.8%) and Eduardo Girão (13.2%) trail with niche support peaking at 16% absent top rivals, as coalition talks and Ciro's pending May decision on a presidential bid introduce volatility ahead of a potential October 25 runoff.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$16,086Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including the Genial/Quaest survey from April 24-28 showing Ciro Gomes at 41% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32% in a first-round scenario, underpin trader consensus pricing Ciro as the clear frontrunner at 46% implied probability for the October 4 Ceará gubernatorial election. Ciro's lead stems from his prior governorship and consistent polling strength around 41-47% across Datafolha, Paraná Pesquisas, and AtlasIntel, while Elmano's 26.5% reflects weaker first-round showings and PT debates favoring Senator Camilo Santana, who edges Ciro in some runoffs. Roberto Cláudio (13.8%) and Eduardo Girão (13.2%) trail with niche support peaking at 16% absent top rivals, as coalition talks and Ciro's pending May decision on a presidential bid introduce volatility ahead of a potential October 25 runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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