Tight race for third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election reflects right-wing fragmentation after São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas withdrew on April 4 to seek reelection, boosting Senator Flávio Bolsonaro into clear second behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Latest AtlasIntel poll (April 22–27) shows Renan Santos (Mission Party) edging ahead at 5.3%, ahead of Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3.3%, with Nexus (April 24–26) even tighter among them at 3–4%. Trader consensus prices Renan Santos and Zema as near co-favorites due to undecided voters and regional strengths—Zema in Minas Gerais, Caiado in Goiás—but endorsements, scandals, or campaign momentum could consolidate support and create separation ahead of the runoff trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRenan Santos 38%
Romeu Zema 37%
Ronaldo Caiado 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro 4.7%
$270,432 Vol.
$270,432 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Renan Santos
38%
Romeu Zema
37%
Ronaldo Caiado
22%
Flávio Bolsonaro
5%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
2%
Camilo Santana
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Renan Santos 38%
Romeu Zema 37%
Ronaldo Caiado 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro 4.7%
$270,432 Vol.
$270,432 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Renan Santos
$63,427 Vol.
38%
Romeu Zema
$8,233 Vol.
37%
Ronaldo Caiado
$15,820 Vol.
22%
Flávio Bolsonaro
$5,683 Vol.
5%
Fernando Haddad
$14,287 Vol.
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$4,321 Vol.
2%
Camilo Santana
$5,352 Vol.
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$39,580 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$3,127 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$4,014 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,329 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$92,956 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$3,636 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$4,243 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$2,423 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Tight race for third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election reflects right-wing fragmentation after São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas withdrew on April 4 to seek reelection, boosting Senator Flávio Bolsonaro into clear second behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Latest AtlasIntel poll (April 22–27) shows Renan Santos (Mission Party) edging ahead at 5.3%, ahead of Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3.3%, with Nexus (April 24–26) even tighter among them at 3–4%. Trader consensus prices Renan Santos and Zema as near co-favorites due to undecided voters and regional strengths—Zema in Minas Gerais, Caiado in Goiás—but endorsements, scandals, or campaign momentum could consolidate support and create separation ahead of the runoff trigger.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volumen
$270,432Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Tight race for third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election reflects right-wing fragmentation after São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas withdrew on April 4 to seek reelection, boosting Senator Flávio Bolsonaro into clear second behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Latest AtlasIntel poll (April 22–27) shows Renan Santos (Mission Party) edging ahead at 5.3%, ahead of Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3.3%, with Nexus (April 24–26) even tighter among them at 3–4%. Trader consensus prices Renan Santos and Zema as near co-favorites due to undecided voters and regional strengths—Zema in Minas Gerais, Caiado in Goiás—but endorsements, scandals, or campaign momentum could consolidate support and create separation ahead of the runoff trigger.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$270,432Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tight race for third place in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election reflects right-wing fragmentation after São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas withdrew on April 4 to seek reelection, boosting Senator Flávio Bolsonaro into clear second behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Latest AtlasIntel poll (April 22–27) shows Renan Santos (Mission Party) edging ahead at 5.3%, ahead of Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3.3%, with Nexus (April 24–26) even tighter among them at 3–4%. Trader consensus prices Renan Santos and Zema as near co-favorites due to undecided voters and regional strengths—Zema in Minas Gerais, Caiado in Goiás—but endorsements, scandals, or campaign momentum could consolidate support and create separation ahead of the runoff trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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