Recent polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round show President Lula leading with 37-47% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-40%, leaving third place highly contested among right-wing governors and outsiders as their votes fragment. Romeu Zema holds trader consensus at 38% implied probability due to his strong Minas Gerais base and consistent mid-single-digit national polling, but Renan Santos has surged to third in the late-April AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, overtaking Zema and Ronaldo Caiado amid buzz over his Partido Missão platform. Caiado remains viable at 21.5% with Goiás support. This tight race reflects undecided voters (6-8%) and no right-wing consolidation; party conventions by July and fresh polls could separate frontrunners.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRomeu Zema 38%
Renan Santos 31%
Ronaldo Caiado 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5.1%
$262,291 Vol.
$262,291 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Romeu Zema
38%
Renan Santos
31%
Ronaldo Caiado
22%
Flávio Bolsonaro
5%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Romeu Zema 38%
Renan Santos 31%
Ronaldo Caiado 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5.1%
$262,291 Vol.
$262,291 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Romeu Zema
$7,415 Vol.
38%
Renan Santos
$56,028 Vol.
31%
Ronaldo Caiado
$15,260 Vol.
22%
Flávio Bolsonaro
$5,704 Vol.
5%
Fernando Haddad
$14,287 Vol.
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$4,321 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$3,994 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$5,352 Vol.
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$39,580 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$4,014 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,313 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$92,940 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$3,636 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$4,022 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$2,423 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round show President Lula leading with 37-47% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-40%, leaving third place highly contested among right-wing governors and outsiders as their votes fragment. Romeu Zema holds trader consensus at 38% implied probability due to his strong Minas Gerais base and consistent mid-single-digit national polling, but Renan Santos has surged to third in the late-April AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, overtaking Zema and Ronaldo Caiado amid buzz over his Partido Missão platform. Caiado remains viable at 21.5% with Goiás support. This tight race reflects undecided voters (6-8%) and no right-wing consolidation; party conventions by July and fresh polls could separate frontrunners.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volumen
$262,291Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round show President Lula leading with 37-47% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-40%, leaving third place highly contested among right-wing governors and outsiders as their votes fragment. Romeu Zema holds trader consensus at 38% implied probability due to his strong Minas Gerais base and consistent mid-single-digit national polling, but Renan Santos has surged to third in the late-April AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, overtaking Zema and Ronaldo Caiado amid buzz over his Partido Missão platform. Caiado remains viable at 21.5% with Goiás support. This tight race reflects undecided voters (6-8%) and no right-wing consolidation; party conventions by July and fresh polls could separate frontrunners.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$262,291Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round show President Lula leading with 37-47% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro close behind at 30-40%, leaving third place highly contested among right-wing governors and outsiders as their votes fragment. Romeu Zema holds trader consensus at 38% implied probability due to his strong Minas Gerais base and consistent mid-single-digit national polling, but Renan Santos has surged to third in the late-April AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, overtaking Zema and Ronaldo Caiado amid buzz over his Partido Missão platform. Caiado remains viable at 21.5% with Goiás support. This tight race reflects undecided voters (6-8%) and no right-wing consolidation; party conventions by July and fresh polls could separate frontrunners.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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