The latest AtlasIntel poll from April 22–27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in first-round voting intentions, edging out Romeu Zema at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado at 3.3% behind frontrunners Lula (46.6%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (39.7%), fueling a tight race for third place on Polymarket where Zema holds a slim 38.5% implied probability over Santos at 34.5% and Caiado at 20%. This reflects fragmentation in the center-right field, with governors leveraging regional strongholds amid 10–20% undecided voters and volatile early polls ahead of August party conventions. Separation could arise from Bolsonaro family endorsements, convention consolidations, or shifts in polling averages tracking economic performance in Minas Gerais and Goiás.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRomeu Zema 38%
Renan Santos 34%
Ronaldo Caiado 20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 4.0%
$263,428 Vol.
$263,428 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Romeu Zema
38%
Renan Santos
34%
Ronaldo Caiado
20%
Flávio Bolsonaro
4%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Eduardo Leite
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Romeu Zema 38%
Renan Santos 34%
Ronaldo Caiado 20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 4.0%
$263,428 Vol.
$263,428 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Romeu Zema
$7,443 Vol.
38%
Renan Santos
$56,675 Vol.
34%
Ronaldo Caiado
$15,296 Vol.
20%
Flávio Bolsonaro
$5,732 Vol.
4%
Fernando Haddad
$14,299 Vol.
3%
Eduardo Leite
$2,529 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$5,365 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$4,022 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$4,256 Vol.
1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$4,224 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,341 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$39,592 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$92,968 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$3,648 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$4,038 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The latest AtlasIntel poll from April 22–27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in first-round voting intentions, edging out Romeu Zema at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado at 3.3% behind frontrunners Lula (46.6%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (39.7%), fueling a tight race for third place on Polymarket where Zema holds a slim 38.5% implied probability over Santos at 34.5% and Caiado at 20%. This reflects fragmentation in the center-right field, with governors leveraging regional strongholds amid 10–20% undecided voters and volatile early polls ahead of August party conventions. Separation could arise from Bolsonaro family endorsements, convention consolidations, or shifts in polling averages tracking economic performance in Minas Gerais and Goiás.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volumen
$263,428Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The latest AtlasIntel poll from April 22–27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in first-round voting intentions, edging out Romeu Zema at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado at 3.3% behind frontrunners Lula (46.6%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (39.7%), fueling a tight race for third place on Polymarket where Zema holds a slim 38.5% implied probability over Santos at 34.5% and Caiado at 20%. This reflects fragmentation in the center-right field, with governors leveraging regional strongholds amid 10–20% undecided voters and volatile early polls ahead of August party conventions. Separation could arise from Bolsonaro family endorsements, convention consolidations, or shifts in polling averages tracking economic performance in Minas Gerais and Goiás.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$263,428Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The latest AtlasIntel poll from April 22–27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in first-round voting intentions, edging out Romeu Zema at 3.1% and Ronaldo Caiado at 3.3% behind frontrunners Lula (46.6%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (39.7%), fueling a tight race for third place on Polymarket where Zema holds a slim 38.5% implied probability over Santos at 34.5% and Caiado at 20%. This reflects fragmentation in the center-right field, with governors leveraging regional strongholds amid 10–20% undecided voters and volatile early polls ahead of August party conventions. Separation could arise from Bolsonaro family endorsements, convention consolidations, or shifts in polling averages tracking economic performance in Minas Gerais and Goiás.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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