Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27) and BTG Pactual/Nexus (April 27) show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 46-47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidating a strong second place at 39-40%, well ahead of rivals like Renan Santos (5%), Fernando Haddad, and Romeu Zema in single digits. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Flávio Bolsonaro as the implied frontrunner for second amid his appeal to the right-wing base as Jair Bolsonaro's son and proxy, while Lula's incumbency edge keeps him favored for first but vulnerable to shifts. No major disruptions in the past week; focus remains on pre-October 4 first-round dynamics and potential runoff setups.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 66%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 22%
Renan Santos 5.0%
Fernando Haddad 4.3%
$3,385,707 Vol.
$3,385,707 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
66%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
22%
Renan Santos
5%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Romeu Zema
3%
Camilo Santana
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 66%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 22%
Renan Santos 5.0%
Fernando Haddad 4.3%
$3,385,707 Vol.
$3,385,707 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$47,060 Vol.
66%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$58,195 Vol.
22%
Renan Santos
$985,488 Vol.
5%
Fernando Haddad
$647,178 Vol.
4%
Romeu Zema
$242,882 Vol.
3%
Camilo Santana
$51,962 Vol.
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$116,116 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$281,777 Vol.
1%
Aldo Rebelo
$26,533 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$66,381 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$634,640 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$36,207 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$92,244 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$43,144 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$55,903 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27) and BTG Pactual/Nexus (April 27) show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 46-47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidating a strong second place at 39-40%, well ahead of rivals like Renan Santos (5%), Fernando Haddad, and Romeu Zema in single digits. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Flávio Bolsonaro as the implied frontrunner for second amid his appeal to the right-wing base as Jair Bolsonaro's son and proxy, while Lula's incumbency edge keeps him favored for first but vulnerable to shifts. No major disruptions in the past week; focus remains on pre-October 4 first-round dynamics and potential runoff setups.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$3,385,707Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27) and BTG Pactual/Nexus (April 27) show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 46-47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidating a strong second place at 39-40%, well ahead of rivals like Renan Santos (5%), Fernando Haddad, and Romeu Zema in single digits. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Flávio Bolsonaro as the implied frontrunner for second amid his appeal to the right-wing base as Jair Bolsonaro's son and proxy, while Lula's incumbency edge keeps him favored for first but vulnerable to shifts. No major disruptions in the past week; focus remains on pre-October 4 first-round dynamics and potential runoff setups.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,385,707Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from AtlasIntel (April 22-27) and BTG Pactual/Nexus (April 27) show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 46-47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidating a strong second place at 39-40%, well ahead of rivals like Renan Santos (5%), Fernando Haddad, and Romeu Zema in single digits. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Flávio Bolsonaro as the implied frontrunner for second amid his appeal to the right-wing base as Jair Bolsonaro's son and proxy, while Lula's incumbency edge keeps him favored for first but vulnerable to shifts. No major disruptions in the past week; focus remains on pre-October 4 first-round dynamics and potential runoff setups.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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