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Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar

icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar

Flávio Bolsonaro 66%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 21%

Fernando Haddad 5.2%

Renan Santos 5.0%

Polymarket

$3,386,644 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 66%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 21%

Fernando Haddad 5.2%

Renan Santos 5.0%

Polymarket

$3,386,644 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$47,175 Vol.

66%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$58,202 Vol.

21%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$647,178 Vol.

5%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$985,488 Vol.

5%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$242,931 Vol.

3%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$51,962 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$281,777 Vol.

1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$116,116 Vol.

1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$26,533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$66,381 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$634,905 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$36,707 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$92,244 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$43,144 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$55,903 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late April 2026, including AtlasIntel (Lula 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 40%) and Nexus (Lula 41%, Flávio 36%), consistently position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in first-round voting intentions, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro firmly in second place ahead of fragmented challengers like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 3-6%. Traders price Flávio at 66% implied probability for second, reflecting his consolidation of right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, narrowing Lula's lead from earlier margins. Lula's 21% for second accounts for volatility in undecided voters (8-19%), while low odds for alternatives like Fernando Haddad (5%) highlight right-wing unity driving the market. The October 4 first round advances the top two to a potential runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,386,644
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late April 2026, including AtlasIntel (Lula 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro 40%) and Nexus (Lula 41%, Flávio 36%), consistently position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in first-round voting intentions, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro firmly in second place ahead of fragmented challengers like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema at 3-6%. Traders price Flávio at 66% implied probability for second, reflecting his consolidation of right-wing support amid Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, narrowing Lula's lead from earlier margins. Lula's 21% for second accounts for volatility in undecided voters (8-19%), while low odds for alternatives like Fernando Haddad (5%) highlight right-wing unity driving the market. The October 4 first round advances the top two to a potential runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,386,644
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 15 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 66%, seguido de "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 66¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 66% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" ha generado $3.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 11, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar", explora los 15 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" es "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 66%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 66% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 21%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 2º lugar" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.