Recent Conservative defections to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, capped by Marilyn Gladu's floor-crossing on April 8, have positioned Liberals one seat shy of a House of Commons majority, fueling speculation of more switches without triggering byelections or a snap election. No further verified party-to-party caucus changes have occurred in the past three weeks, despite reports like Kitchener Centre MP Kelly DeRidder's public refusal of Liberal overtures and a hot-mic admission from Conservative MP Billy Morin on poaching attempts. Trader consensus reflects this caucus instability, pricing May 31 at 54% and May 15 at 52% implied probabilities for another defection, amid ongoing parliamentary math pressures and potential confidence votes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 jun 2026
April 30
43%
May 15
48%
May 31
52%
$287 Vol.
April 30
$178 Vol.
43%
May 15
$27 Vol.
48%
May 31
$82 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Conservative defections to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, capped by Marilyn Gladu's floor-crossing on April 8, have positioned Liberals one seat shy of a House of Commons majority, fueling speculation of more switches without triggering byelections or a snap election. No further verified party-to-party caucus changes have occurred in the past three weeks, despite reports like Kitchener Centre MP Kelly DeRidder's public refusal of Liberal overtures and a hot-mic admission from Conservative MP Billy Morin on poaching attempts. Trader consensus reflects this caucus instability, pricing May 31 at 54% and May 15 at 52% implied probabilities for another defection, amid ongoing parliamentary math pressures and potential confidence votes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$287Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Conservative defections to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, capped by Marilyn Gladu's floor-crossing on April 8, have positioned Liberals one seat shy of a House of Commons majority, fueling speculation of more switches without triggering byelections or a snap election. No further verified party-to-party caucus changes have occurred in the past three weeks, despite reports like Kitchener Centre MP Kelly DeRidder's public refusal of Liberal overtures and a hot-mic admission from Conservative MP Billy Morin on poaching attempts. Trader consensus reflects this caucus instability, pricing May 31 at 54% and May 15 at 52% implied probabilities for another defection, amid ongoing parliamentary math pressures and potential confidence votes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$287Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Conservative defections to Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal minority government, capped by Marilyn Gladu's floor-crossing on April 8, have positioned Liberals one seat shy of a House of Commons majority, fueling speculation of more switches without triggering byelections or a snap election. No further verified party-to-party caucus changes have occurred in the past three weeks, despite reports like Kitchener Centre MP Kelly DeRidder's public refusal of Liberal overtures and a hot-mic admission from Conservative MP Billy Morin on poaching attempts. Trader consensus reflects this caucus instability, pricing May 31 at 54% and May 15 at 52% implied probabilities for another defection, amid ongoing parliamentary math pressures and potential confidence votes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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