Persistent Houthi threats and attacks in the Red Sea, including missile launches toward Israel on March 28, 2026, and warnings of Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure on April 2, have locked container ship operators into Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping Suez Canal transits depressed. Alphaliner data shows January 2026 at just 150 container ship passages—the lowest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid resurgent risks, projecting under 1,000 total for H1 despite occasional tests by Maersk and CMA CGM. Traders' 98% "No" consensus reflects this structural shortfall from pre-crisis norms of 3,000+ annually, as high insurance costs and schedule adjustments favor longer routes. A Yemen ceasefire or effective multinational naval protection could enable a late surge, though barriers remain significant.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Más de 2k tránsitos de portacontenedores por el Canal de Suez en H1 2026?
¿Más de 2k tránsitos de portacontenedores por el Canal de Suez en H1 2026?
Sí
$136,596 Vol.
$136,596 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$136,596 Vol.
$136,596 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Persistent Houthi threats and attacks in the Red Sea, including missile launches toward Israel on March 28, 2026, and warnings of Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure on April 2, have locked container ship operators into Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping Suez Canal transits depressed. Alphaliner data shows January 2026 at just 150 container ship passages—the lowest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid resurgent risks, projecting under 1,000 total for H1 despite occasional tests by Maersk and CMA CGM. Traders' 98% "No" consensus reflects this structural shortfall from pre-crisis norms of 3,000+ annually, as high insurance costs and schedule adjustments favor longer routes. A Yemen ceasefire or effective multinational naval protection could enable a late surge, though barriers remain significant.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
Mercado abierto: Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ET
Volumen
$136,596Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Persistent Houthi threats and attacks in the Red Sea, including missile launches toward Israel on March 28, 2026, and warnings of Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure on April 2, have locked container ship operators into Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping Suez Canal transits depressed. Alphaliner data shows January 2026 at just 150 container ship passages—the lowest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid resurgent risks, projecting under 1,000 total for H1 despite occasional tests by Maersk and CMA CGM. Traders' 98% "No" consensus reflects this structural shortfall from pre-crisis norms of 3,000+ annually, as high insurance costs and schedule adjustments favor longer routes. A Yemen ceasefire or effective multinational naval protection could enable a late surge, though barriers remain significant.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
Volumen
$136,596Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Houthi threats and attacks in the Red Sea, including missile launches toward Israel on March 28, 2026, and warnings of Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure on April 2, have locked container ship operators into Cape of Good Hope rerouting, keeping Suez Canal transits depressed. Alphaliner data shows January 2026 at just 150 container ship passages—the lowest in a decade—with further declines in February and March amid resurgent risks, projecting under 1,000 total for H1 despite occasional tests by Maersk and CMA CGM. Traders' 98% "No" consensus reflects this structural shortfall from pre-crisis norms of 3,000+ annually, as high insurance costs and schedule adjustments favor longer routes. A Yemen ceasefire or effective multinational naval protection could enable a late surge, though barriers remain significant.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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