Persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi attacks have kept most container carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope since late 2023, slashing Suez Canal container transits to roughly 20-30% of pre-crisis monthly levels. Data through early 2026 show January volumes at just 150 transits—the weakest January in a decade—with similar depressed figures persisting into spring despite a Gaza-related ceasefire and limited service tests by carriers such as CMA CGM. Weekly counts in May remained below 35 vessels, confirming cumulative H1 totals well short of 2,000. Sustained insurance caution, schedule reliability concerns, and incomplete threat reduction across alliances reinforce trader consensus that volumes will stay far below the threshold. A rapid, broad-based return by multiple major lines before June 30 remains the primary scenario that could alter the outcome, though current patterns indicate limited near-term probability.