Persistent Houthi threats and attacks in the Red Sea, intensified by the 2026 Iran conflict and resumed missile activity from late March onward, have kept major container carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Official Suez Canal Authority and tracking data show container transits stuck at roughly 150 per month in early 2026, with weekly figures around 22–32 even into May, far below the pre-disruption pace of ~80 per week. Limited test sailings by lines such as CMA CGM proved short-lived amid fresh security concerns, preventing any meaningful recovery through the first half of the year. Trader consensus at 99.1% for fewer than 2,000 transits reflects these sustained diversions and the absence of a durable ceasefire or de-escalation. A rapid, verified halt to attacks combined with broad carrier commitments in the final weeks of June remains the only realistic path that could still shift totals, though current volumes make that outcome improbable.