This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces launched a spring offensive in late March 2026 targeting the Lyman direction in Donetsk Oblast, conducting repeated assaults—up to 15 in a single day by April 25—while advancing incrementally into nearby villages like Studenok northwest of Lyman, per ISW assessments that define market resolution. Ukrainian defenders have mounted counterattacks, including breaches near Yampil and pushes east of Lyman, inflicting heavy losses on Russian mechanized units via FPV drones and holding core positions amid reports of Russian retreats. Trader sentiment reflects Russia's sustained pressure and manpower edge against Ukraine's fortified lines and logistics strikes, with no capture confirmed on current front lines; potential shifts hinge on mechanized breakthroughs or Western aid flows before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces launched a spring offensive in late March 2026 targeting the Lyman direction in Donetsk Oblast, conducting repeated assaults—up to 15 in a single day by April 25—while advancing incrementally into nearby villages like Studenok northwest of Lyman, per ISW assessments that define market resolution. Ukrainian defenders have mounted counterattacks, including breaches near Yampil and pushes east of Lyman, inflicting heavy losses on Russian mechanized units via FPV drones and holding core positions amid reports of Russian retreats. Trader sentiment reflects Russia's sustained pressure and manpower edge against Ukraine's fortified lines and logistics strikes, with no capture confirmed on current front lines; potential shifts hinge on mechanized breakthroughs or Western aid flows before year-end deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 28 2026
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
May 31 dips to 7%2%
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
Apr 27 2026
ISW and Ukrainian sources confirm Russian forces have not captured Lyman railroad station; Russian advances stalled
April 30 dips to 0%2%
(Confirmation of no Russian capture finalized market collapse to zero.)
Apr 23 2026
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks confirmed near Lyman forests, suggesting ongoing contest for control
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian troops conducting counterattacks near Lyman, indicating active fighting and uncertainty about final control.
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
May 31 dips to 9%2%
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
Apr 22 2026
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
Apr 21 2026
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Apr 21 2026
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
May 31 dips to 12%1%
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
Apr 21 2026
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claims advances near Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian control
April 30 dips to 2%1%
(Discrepancy between Russian claims and independent assessments led to skepticism and
Apr 18 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks push Russian forces from positions southeast of Lyman;
June 30 dips to 22%1%
Russian advances slow in Slovyansk direction, indicating stalled Russian offensive
Apr 16 2026
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
May 31 drops to 13%12%
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
Apr 11 2026
Russian forces continue artillery and drone strikes in Lyman direction despite ceasefire, indicating ongoing contestation
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russian artillery and drone strikes persisted in the Lyman area after a ceasefire began, showing continued conflict and uncertainty over control of the city.
Apr 10 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in central Yampil southeast of Lyman;
June 30 jumps to 23%6%
Russian forces attack near Lyman and Slovyansk but fail to secure significant gains
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
Apr 2 2026
Continued Ukrainian control and Russian infiltration missions fail to change frontline near Lyman
April 30 drops to 9%5%
(Reports confirmed no Russian capture, pushing
Apr 1 2026
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
June 30 plunges to 19%19%
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
Mar 28 2026
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
June 30 plunges to 38%18%
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
Mar 28 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in eastern Lyman; Russian forces fail to gain foothold
April 30 dips to 14%3%
(Ukrainian advances and Russian failures to secure Lyman further reduced market confidence.)
Mar 23 2026
ISW reports Russian forces unlikely to seize Fortress Belt including Lyman in 2026; Russian advances slow and costly
April 30 drops to 20%8%
(Expert assessments dampened expectations of Russian capture, lowering
Mar 10 2026
Ukrainian forces clear previously contested parts of Lyman, denying Russian control
April 30 drops to 28%10%
(Reports of Ukrainian forces regaining control in Lyman caused a sharp drop in market
Mar 10 2026
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting
June 30 rises to 70%2%
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting Russian progress
Mar 5 2026
Russian mechanized assault toward Lyman reported, but Ukrainian forces inflict heavy losses and prevent capture
April 30 jumps to 52%12%
(Russian offensive efforts near Lyman raised hopes of capture, pushing
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian forces report territorial gains but Russian strikes on railway infrastructure intensify
December 31 rises to 88%1%
Despite Ukrainian territorial gains in February, Russian forces increased attacks on railway infrastructure near Lyman, maintaining pressure on the strategic transport hub.
Feb 28 2026
Russian forces maintain offensive operations around Lyman with attacks on multiple nearby settlements
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, continuing efforts to encircle and capture the city, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked elsewhere.
Feb 25 2026
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman, capturing nearby villages and expanding penetration zones
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian troops seized four villages in the Lyman area and expanded operations in forests south of Lyman, consolidating positions and increasing chances of capturing the city.
Feb 24 2026
Russian forces in the Lyman direction experience communication issues impacting assault coordination;
June 30 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian forces strike Russian manpower near Torske east of Lyman, slowing Russian advances
Feb 20 2026
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman amid intensified attacks on railway infrastructure
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and infiltrated its outskirts, while shifting strikes to Ukrainian water and railway infrastructure, signaling increased pressure on the strategic railway hub.
Feb 20 2026
Ukrainian forces launch counterattacks near Lyman, repelling Russian advances and maintaining control over key positions
April 30 surges to 49%17%
(Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian difficulties in advancing near Lyman increased confidence in a possible Russian capture, temporarily raising
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces launched a spring offensive in late March 2026 targeting the Lyman direction in Donetsk Oblast, conducting repeated assaults—up to 15 in a single day by April 25—while advancing incrementally into nearby villages like Studenok northwest of Lyman, per ISW assessments that define market resolution. Ukrainian defenders have mounted counterattacks, including breaches near Yampil and pushes east of Lyman, inflicting heavy losses on Russian mechanized units via FPV drones and holding core positions amid reports of Russian retreats. Trader sentiment reflects Russia's sustained pressure and manpower edge against Ukraine's fortified lines and logistics strikes, with no capture confirmed on current front lines; potential shifts hinge on mechanized breakthroughs or Western aid flows before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces launched a spring offensive in late March 2026 targeting the Lyman direction in Donetsk Oblast, conducting repeated assaults—up to 15 in a single day by April 25—while advancing incrementally into nearby villages like Studenok northwest of Lyman, per ISW assessments that define market resolution. Ukrainian defenders have mounted counterattacks, including breaches near Yampil and pushes east of Lyman, inflicting heavy losses on Russian mechanized units via FPV drones and holding core positions amid reports of Russian retreats. Trader sentiment reflects Russia's sustained pressure and manpower edge against Ukraine's fortified lines and logistics strikes, with no capture confirmed on current front lines; potential shifts hinge on mechanized breakthroughs or Western aid flows before year-end deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 28 2026
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
May 31 dips to 7%2%
Pravda Germany analysis shows continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Lyman sector, with geolocated footage confirming Ukrainian troops in adjacent forest lines
Apr 27 2026
ISW and Ukrainian sources confirm Russian forces have not captured Lyman railroad station; Russian advances stalled
April 30 dips to 0%2%
(Confirmation of no Russian capture finalized market collapse to zero.)
Apr 23 2026
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Kyiv hails frontline position near Lyman as strongest in a year, reflecting Ukrainian defensive resilience and limiting Russian capture prospects
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks confirmed near Lyman forests, suggesting ongoing contest for control
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian troops conducting counterattacks near Lyman, indicating active fighting and uncertainty about final control.
Apr 23 2026
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
May 31 dips to 9%2%
Ukrainian brigade reports increased Russian small‑group activity near Lyman but no territorial gains, reinforcing market view that capture is unlikely
Apr 22 2026
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
May 31 dips to 11%1%
ISW “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment” reiterates lack of Russian presence in Lyman despite Russian statements, confirming Ukrainian hold on the area
Apr 21 2026
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Russian General Staff claims partial control of Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian seizure of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining uncertainty
Apr 21 2026
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
May 31 dips to 12%1%
Russian mil‑blogger Gerasimov alleges 70 % of Lyman captured, but ISW reports no evidence of any Russian control of the town
Apr 21 2026
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claims advances near Lyman, but ISW finds no evidence of Russian control
April 30 dips to 2%1%
(Discrepancy between Russian claims and independent assessments led to skepticism and
Apr 18 2026
Ukrainian counterattacks push Russian forces from positions southeast of Lyman;
June 30 dips to 22%1%
Russian advances slow in Slovyansk direction, indicating stalled Russian offensive
Apr 16 2026
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
May 31 drops to 13%12%
ISW assessment refutes earlier Russian claims of taking Lyman, noting Ukrainian forces still hold positions in Sosnove northwest of the town
Apr 11 2026
Russian forces continue artillery and drone strikes in Lyman direction despite ceasefire, indicating ongoing contestation
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russian artillery and drone strikes persisted in the Lyman area after a ceasefire began, showing continued conflict and uncertainty over control of the city.
Apr 10 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in central Yampil southeast of Lyman;
June 30 jumps to 23%6%
Russian forces attack near Lyman and Slovyansk but fail to secure significant gains
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
Apr 2 2026
Continued Ukrainian control and Russian infiltration missions fail to change frontline near Lyman
April 30 drops to 9%5%
(Reports confirmed no Russian capture, pushing
Apr 1 2026
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
June 30 plunges to 19%19%
Russian Defense Ministry declares completion of Luhansk oblast "liberation," but ISW data shows slow Russian territorial gains near Lyman, reflecting limited progress
Mar 28 2026
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
June 30 plunges to 38%18%
Russian forces advance near Pokrovsk and Chervonyi Lyman but Ukrainian forces conduct sweeps and counterattacks nearby, indicating contested control
Mar 28 2026
Ukrainian forces advance in eastern Lyman; Russian forces fail to gain foothold
April 30 dips to 14%3%
(Ukrainian advances and Russian failures to secure Lyman further reduced market confidence.)
Mar 23 2026
ISW reports Russian forces unlikely to seize Fortress Belt including Lyman in 2026; Russian advances slow and costly
April 30 drops to 20%8%
(Expert assessments dampened expectations of Russian capture, lowering
Mar 10 2026
Ukrainian forces clear previously contested parts of Lyman, denying Russian control
April 30 drops to 28%10%
(Reports of Ukrainian forces regaining control in Lyman caused a sharp drop in market
Mar 10 2026
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting
June 30 rises to 70%2%
Russian forces conduct attacks near Lyman and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks and degraded situational awareness due to Starlink disruptions, limiting Russian progress
Mar 5 2026
Russian mechanized assault toward Lyman reported, but Ukrainian forces inflict heavy losses and prevent capture
April 30 jumps to 52%12%
(Russian offensive efforts near Lyman raised hopes of capture, pushing
Mar 2 2026
Ukrainian forces report territorial gains but Russian strikes on railway infrastructure intensify
December 31 rises to 88%1%
Despite Ukrainian territorial gains in February, Russian forces increased attacks on railway infrastructure near Lyman, maintaining pressure on the strategic transport hub.
Feb 28 2026
Russian forces maintain offensive operations around Lyman with attacks on multiple nearby settlements
December 31 rises to 87%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages, continuing efforts to encircle and capture the city, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked elsewhere.
Feb 25 2026
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman, capturing nearby villages and expanding penetration zones
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian troops seized four villages in the Lyman area and expanded operations in forests south of Lyman, consolidating positions and increasing chances of capturing the city.
Feb 24 2026
Russian forces in the Lyman direction experience communication issues impacting assault coordination;
June 30 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian forces strike Russian manpower near Torske east of Lyman, slowing Russian advances
Feb 20 2026
Russian assault groups infiltrate outskirts of Lyman amid intensified attacks on railway infrastructure
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and infiltrated its outskirts, while shifting strikes to Ukrainian water and railway infrastructure, signaling increased pressure on the strategic railway hub.
Feb 20 2026
Ukrainian forces launch counterattacks near Lyman, repelling Russian advances and maintaining control over key positions
April 30 surges to 49%17%
(Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian difficulties in advancing near Lyman increased confidence in a possible Russian capture, temporarily raising
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 60%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 60¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 60% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?" ha generado $2.2 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 22, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 60%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 60% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $2.2 million operados en “¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 60¢ para "31 de diciembre" en el mercado "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 60% de que "31 de diciembre" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 60¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 40¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 93 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Rusia capturará a Lyman para...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes