Russian forces continue intense assault operations around Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, deploying infantry, motorized units, and drone strikes against Ukrainian ground lines of communication, but ISW assessments as of April 29 confirm no Russian advances in the town itself—instead noting Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druhzivka tactical area, including southwestern outskirts. Geolocated footage shows Russian infiltrations south in Illinivka and claims on nearby Novodmytrivka, yet Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain defensive positions anchoring routes to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Russian manpower shortages, including use of wounded personnel and mercenaries, slow momentum after nearly a year of fighting since October 2025. Traders track ISW terrain maps for sustained "assessed Russian control" shading over key sites like the railroad station, with no scheduled events but potential flank developments in Chasiv Yar or Pokrovsk directions influencing outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo new confirmed Russian breakthroughs reported;
May 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
market settles near 20 % as traders(no specific source needed for the lack of news).
Russian offensive‑campaign assessment reports no territorial gains in Kostyantynivka and continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks, cementing the market’s low‑probability view
Russian offensive‑campaign assessment reports no territorial gains in Kostyantynivka and continued Ukrainian counter‑attacks, cementing the market’s low‑probability view
ISW reports fresh Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka but no breakthrough;
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%13%
Ukrainian counter‑strikes intensify, pushing the market to its lowest level
Pravda Ukraine reported fierce fighting on all flanks of Kostyantynivka with no clear Russian breakthrough, confirming the city remained contested
April 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Pravda Ukraine reported fierce fighting on all flanks of Kostyantynivka with no clear Russian breakthrough, confirming the city remained contested
Ukrainian battalion reports intensified Russian infantry and drone assaults without gaining fire control, reinforcing doubts and pushing
May 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Ukrainian battalion reports intensified Russian infantry and drone assaults without gaining fire control, reinforcing doubts and pushing
Russian MoD claimed seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) but ISW assessed the front remained contested and Russian drone use had not secured supply lines
April 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Russian MoD claimed seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) but ISW assessed the front remained contested and Russian drone use had not secured supply lines
Russian MoD credits 10th Tank Regiment and 77th Motorised Rifle Regiment with seizure of Illinivka, yet Ukrainian commanders say Russian gains remain limited, nudging
May 31, 2026 dips to 22%3%
Russian MoD credits 10th Tank Regiment and 77th Motorised Rifle Regiment with seizure of Illinivka, yet Ukrainian commanders say Russian gains remain limited, nudging
Ukrainian forces report a successful counter‑attack near Ivanopillya, pushing Russian units back from the city’s outskirts, driving the odds sharply lower
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%12%
Ukrainian forces report a successful counter‑attack near Ivanopillya, pushing Russian units back from the city’s outskirts, driving the odds sharply lower
ISW notes a sharp rise in Russian personnel losses (720 troops reported on Feb 6) and a slowdown in Russian mechanized assaults, feeding market sentiment that a capture by June 30
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%13%
ISW notes a sharp rise in Russian personnel losses (720 troops reported on Feb 6) and a slowdown in Russian mechanized assaults, feeding market sentiment that a capture by June 30 is unlikely
ISW assessment notes continued Russian offensive but no confirmed advance;
May 31, 2026 drops to 25%8%
milbloggers claim a Ukrainian counter‑attack in Kostyantynivka, leading to a
ISW noted Russian milbloggers claimed limited advances in Illinivka and surrounding villages, but multiple sources disputed actual control, reinforcing doubts about a capture
April 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
ISW noted Russian milbloggers claimed limited advances in Illinivka and surrounding villages, but multiple sources disputed actual control, reinforcing doubts about a capture
Pravda Germany reports Russian troops regaining positions in southern Kostyantynivka and taking Dolgaya Balka, sparking a
May 31, 2026 jumps to 33%7%
Pravda Germany reports Russian troops regaining positions in southern Kostyantynivka and taking Dolgaya Balka, sparking a
Geolocated footage shows Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, reinforcing doubts about a capture
June 30, 2026 plunges to 48%20%
Geolocated footage shows Russian infiltration missions near Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, reinforcing doubts about a capture
ISW records Ukrainian repulse of a Russian motorised assault in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, causing the
May 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
ISW records Ukrainian repulse of a Russian motorised assault in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, causing the
Russian milbloggers claim a “capture” of nearby Berestok, but ISW finds no terrain change, leading to a brief
June 30, 2026 dips to 47%2%
Russian milbloggers claim a “capture” of nearby Berestok, but ISW finds no terrain change, leading to a brief
Pravda Ukraine notes heavy combat and a Russian push into the southern part of Kostyantynivka, prompting a modest
May 31, 2026 rises to 30%4%
Pravda Ukraine notes heavy combat and a Russian push into the southern part of Kostyantynivka, prompting a modest
ISW reported Russian forces continued attacks but made no confirmed advances;
April 30, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Ukrainian footage showed strikes on Russian‑occupied buildings in the city
ISW reports no confirmed Russian gains but milbloggers claim a limited advance in southern Illinivka, lifting optimism and pushing
May 31, 2026 jumps to 26%12%
ISW reports no confirmed Russian gains but milbloggers claim a limited advance in southern Illinivka, lifting optimism and pushing
Ukrainian forces strike Russian vehicles south of Predtechyne, halting the advance and prompting a sharp
May 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
Ukrainian forces strike Russian vehicles south of Predtechyne, halting the advance and prompting a sharp
ISW assessment notes Russian offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction continue without any territorial advance
June 30, 2026 plunges to 68%15%
ISW assessment notes Russian offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction continue without any territorial advance
Russian milbloggers claim capture of Illinivka, a key village west of Kostyantynivka, suggesting a new encirclement
May 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
Russian milbloggers claim capture of Illinivka, a key village west of Kostyantynivka, suggesting a new encirclement
ISW analysis highlighted high Russian casualties and “gray‑zone” fighting east of Kostyantynivka, suggesting the offensive was stalling
April 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
ISW analysis highlighted high Russian casualties and “gray‑zone” fighting east of Kostyantynivka, suggesting the offensive was stalling
ISW analysis shows Russian forces only reaching the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with the southeastern “gray zone” still contested and high casualty rates slowing the
April 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
ISW analysis shows Russian forces only reaching the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with the southeastern “gray zone” still contested and high casualty rates slowing the assault
ISW notes Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area after a week of heavy Russian drone activity, suggesting the offensive is stalling
June 30, 2026 dips to 49%3%
ISW notes Ukrainian advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area after a week of heavy Russian drone activity, suggesting the offensive is stalling
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, according to ISW
June 30, 2026 rises to 83%4%
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, according to ISW
Russian MoD decree orders a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter (16:00 Moscow time → 12:00 Moscow time 12 April), halting offensive operations around Kostyantynivka
April 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Russian MoD decree orders a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter (16:00 Moscow time → 12:00 Moscow time 12 April), halting offensive operations around Kostyantynivka
During President Zelensky’s Istanbul visit, a Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising
June 30, 2026 dips to 60%4%
During President Zelensky’s Istanbul visit, a Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising doubts about Russian control
Zelensky announced Russia’s self‑imposed Easter cease‑fire (April 11‑12), and ISW noted no confirmed Russian gains in Kostyantynivka that day
April 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Zelensky announced Russia’s self‑imposed Easter cease‑fire (April 11‑12), and ISW noted no confirmed Russian gains in Kostyantynivka that day
Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising doubts about Russian control
June 30, 2026 rises to 52%1%
Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising doubts about Russian control
President Zelensky reports Russia set a deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by end‑April;
April 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
ISW notes Russian forces have not advanced despite intense fighting
Ukrainian forces strike a Russian‑occupied building in southern Kostyantynivka, confirming Ukrainian counter‑offensive activity
June 30, 2026 rises to 51%3%
Ukrainian forces strike a Russian‑occupied building in southern Kostyantynivka, confirming Ukrainian counter‑offensive activity
Russian drone‑strike on a Ukrainian‑controlled building in southern Kostyantynivka reported, raising fears of renewed BAI activity
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%8%
Russian drone‑strike on a Ukrainian‑controlled building in southern Kostyantynivka reported, raising fears of renewed BAI activity
Russian milbloggers claim a failed motor‑bike assault and the seizure of nearby villages;
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%7%
ISW notes no confirmed Russian gains
Ukrainian drones disrupt a Russian night assault near Kostyantynivka, destroying an MT‑LB, which tempers expectations of a rapid Russian takeover
December 31, 2026 drops to 82%7%
Ukrainian drones disrupt a Russian night assault near Kostyantynivka, destroying an MT‑LB, which tempers expectations of a rapid Russian takeover
Hudson Institute report highlights a moderate operational tempo with no fresh breakthroughs near Kostyantynivka, prompting the final decline toward 80%
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%9%
Hudson Institute report highlights a moderate operational tempo with no fresh breakthroughs near Kostyantynivka, prompting the final decline toward 80%
Russian forces conduct infiltration operations east of Berestok;
June 30, 2026 dips to 64%4%
ISW assesses Ukrainian advances along the Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway, weakening Russian momentum
Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka are documented, but Ukrainian forces also strike Russian positions, indicating a contested front
June 30, 2026 dips to 68%1%
Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka are documented, but Ukrainian forces also strike Russian positions, indicating a contested front
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, undermining earlier capture expectations
June 30, 2026 drops to 48%12%
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in southeastern Kostyantynivka that did not change the front line, undermining earlier capture expectations
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, with geolocated footage showing Russian positions being overrun
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
Ukrainian forces advance near Slovyansk and in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area, with geolocated footage showing Russian positions being overrun
ISW reports Ukrainian forces advancing north of Yablunivka and southeastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting a Ukrainian push that could stall Russian capture plans
June 30, 2026 dips to 69%2%
ISW reports Ukrainian forces advancing north of Yablunivka and southeastern Kostyantynivka, suggesting a Ukrainian push that could stall Russian capture plans
Ukrainian forces push forward on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, while Russian advances remain limited
June 30, 2026 dips to 78%4%
Ukrainian forces push forward on the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, while Russian advances remain limited
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorised assault on the southern flank of Kostyantynivka, inflicting heavy casualties
April 30, 2026 drops to 45%10%
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorised assault on the southern flank of Kostyantynivka, inflicting heavy casualties
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorised assault near Stepanivka, marking the first major setback after a week of Russian gains
April 30, 2026 drops to 28%10%
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian motorised assault near Stepanivka, marking the first major setback after a week of Russian gains
Follow‑up ISW assessment showed the advance was contested and front‑line positions interspersed, eroding confidence
April 30, 2026 drops to 37%9%
Follow‑up ISW assessment showed the advance was contested and front‑line positions interspersed, eroding confidence
ISW reports Russian forces advancing southeast of Kostyantynivka and on its eastern outskirts, suggesting a fresh offensive thrust
June 30, 2026 rises to 82%3%
ISW reports Russian forces advancing southeast of Kostyantynivka and on its eastern outskirts, suggesting a fresh offensive thrust
ISW assessment notes no confirmed Russian gains and Ukrainian forces still holding positions northeast of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier breakthrough claims
April 30, 2026 rises to 48%2%
ISW assessment notes no confirmed Russian gains and Ukrainian forces still holding positions northeast of Kostyantynivka, contradicting earlier breakthrough claims
Russian offensive campaign assessment notes continued fighting but no new territorial gains around Kostyantynivka, keeping odds high but stabilising
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
Russian offensive campaign assessment notes continued fighting but no new territorial gains around Kostyantynivka, keeping odds high but stabilising
ISW notes Russian forces advancing near Illinivka (west of Kostyantynivka) and seizing villages such as Stepanivka, raising doubts about a swift capture
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%1%
ISW notes Russian forces advancing near Illinivka (west of Kostyantynivka) and seizing villages such as Stepanivka, raising doubts about a swift capture
Russian milbloggers claim breakthrough west of Kostyantynivka, reporting capture of Illinivka and advance toward the city
April 30, 2026 jumps to 46%6%
Russian milbloggers claim breakthrough west of Kostyantynivka, reporting capture of Illinivka and advance toward the city
ISW reported a brief Russian “peak” advance to the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka, the highest‑point of the market’s optimism
April 30, 2026 jumps to 46%8%
ISW reported a brief Russian “peak” advance to the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka, the highest‑point of the market’s optimism
ISW notes Russian forces are “replicating the Pokrovsk strategy” for a new assault on Kostyantynivka, suggesting a forthcoming offensive push
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%9%
ISW notes Russian forces are “replicating the Pokrovsk strategy” for a new assault on Kostyantynivka, suggesting a forthcoming offensive push
Russian milblogger warns that exaggerated Russian‑advance claims are “complicating the situation” in Kostyantynivka, while footage shows continued Russian infiltration missions
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
Russian milblogger warns that exaggerated Russian‑advance claims are “complicating the situation” in Kostyantynivka, while footage shows continued Russian infiltration missions
Russian forces strike bridges on the H‑20 Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway with FAB‑3000 glide‑bombs, signalling preparation for a larger assault
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%8%
Russian forces strike bridges on the H‑20 Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway with FAB‑3000 glide‑bombs, signalling preparation for a larger assault
Critical Threats assessment shows Russian attacks north of Kostyantynivka and use of FPV drones, but Ukrainian forces repel assaults, causing a modest dip
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%4%
Critical Threats assessment shows Russian attacks north of Kostyantynivka and use of FPV drones, but Ukrainian forces repel assaults, causing a modest dip
Russian FAB‑3000 glide‑bomb and Kh‑38 strikes hit bridges on the Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway, signalling a preparatory BAI campaign for a future assault
June 30, 2026 jumps to 79%9%
Russian FAB‑3000 glide‑bomb and Kh‑38 strikes hit bridges on the Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway, signalling a preparatory BAI campaign for a future assault
ISW assessment shows Russian advances slowed;
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Pryvillya and Berestok, leading to a modest
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces marginally advancing in southern Kostyantynivka;
June 30, 2026 dips to 70%1%
milbloggers claim further gains on the town’s northern flank
Geolocated footage confirms a marginal Russian advance in southern Kostyantynivka, the first reported ground gain in weeks
June 30, 2026 dips to 70%1%
Geolocated footage confirms a marginal Russian advance in southern Kostyantynivka, the first reported ground gain in weeks
Russian BAI campaign in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area intensifies, targeting Ukrainian logistics with drones and glide‑bombs
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russian BAI campaign in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area intensifies, targeting Ukrainian logistics with drones and glide‑bombs
Russia intensifies battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russia intensifies battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
Russia ramps up battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
June 30, 2026 jumps to 71%10%
Russia ramps up battlefield‑air‑interdiction (BAI) in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, targeting Ukrainian logistics with glide‑bombs and FPV drones
ISW reports Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade striking Ukrainian positions in Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, while Russian MoD redeploys the 70th Motorized Rifle Division
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%4%
ISW reports Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade striking Ukrainian positions in Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, while Russian MoD redeploys the 70th Motorized Rifle Division to the Kostyantynivka‑Chasiv Yar area
Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, signalling a
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%4%
Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated final push
Russian troops infiltrated toward Illinivka west of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces held the western districts, signalling only limited progress
April 30, 2026 dips to 38%2%
Russian troops infiltrated toward Illinivka west of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian forces held the western districts, signalling only limited progress
Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade installs anti‑drone nets around Kostyantynivka as Russian units infiltrate from Yablunivka, signalling intensified assaults
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%3%
Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade installs anti‑drone nets around Kostyantynivka as Russian units infiltrate from Yablunivka, signalling intensified assaults
ISW notes Russian units infiltrating west of Kostyantynivka (Illinivka) and reaching the city’s zinc plant, marking the deepest penetration to date
December 31, 2026 rises to 95%3%
ISW notes Russian units infiltrating west of Kostyantynivka (Illinivka) and reaching the city’s zinc plant, marking the deepest penetration to date
Critical Threats assessment reports Russian forces attacking north, east and south of Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31, with new assaults near Illinivka and Markove
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
Critical Threats assessment reports Russian forces attacking north, east and south of Kostyantynivka on Dec 30‑31, with new assaults near Illinivka and Markove
ISW notes Russian forces now control “more than half of the buildings” in Kostyantynivka and are rapidly advancing toward Sloviansk after seizing Siversk
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%3%
ISW notes Russian forces now control “more than half of the buildings” in Kostyantynivka and are rapidly advancing toward Sloviansk after seizing Siversk
Reuters photo shows Ukrainian 49th assault battalion operating under anti‑drone nets in Kostyantynivka, indicating intensified defence as Russian gains stall
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Reuters photo shows Ukrainian 49th assault battalion operating under anti‑drone nets in Kostyantynivka, indicating intensified defence as Russian gains stall
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russia has taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev says Russia has taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and will seize most of the city by mid‑December
Russian Southern Grouping commander says forces have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aim to seize most of the city by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander says forces have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aim to seize most of the city by mid‑December
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