Russia's political system remains highly centralized under President Vladimir Putin, whose control over security services, military command, and elite appointments has limited visible pathways for a coup attempt through mid-2026. European intelligence reports from March onward noted heightened Kremlin security measures, including bunker use and surveillance, amid elite tensions and Ukrainian drone threats, yet no organized plot or leadership challenge has materialized. Putin has sustained public appearances, including at the June 2026 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, while sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu retain influence without evident mobilization. Analysts cite the absence of precursors such as open military defections or coordinated elite defections, consistent with the regime's post-2023 consolidation after the Wagner events. These factors underpin the market's strong consensus against an attempt materializing this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$39,599 Vol.
$39,599 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$39,599 Vol.
$39,599 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains highly centralized under President Vladimir Putin, whose control over security services, military command, and elite appointments has limited visible pathways for a coup attempt through mid-2026. European intelligence reports from March onward noted heightened Kremlin security measures, including bunker use and surveillance, amid elite tensions and Ukrainian drone threats, yet no organized plot or leadership challenge has materialized. Putin has sustained public appearances, including at the June 2026 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, while sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu retain influence without evident mobilization. Analysts cite the absence of precursors such as open military defections or coordinated elite defections, consistent with the regime's post-2023 consolidation after the Wagner events. These factors underpin the market's strong consensus against an attempt materializing this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$39,599Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains highly centralized under President Vladimir Putin, whose control over security services, military command, and elite appointments has limited visible pathways for a coup attempt through mid-2026. European intelligence reports from March onward noted heightened Kremlin security measures, including bunker use and surveillance, amid elite tensions and Ukrainian drone threats, yet no organized plot or leadership challenge has materialized. Putin has sustained public appearances, including at the June 2026 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, while sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu retain influence without evident mobilization. Analysts cite the absence of precursors such as open military defections or coordinated elite defections, consistent with the regime's post-2023 consolidation after the Wagner events. These factors underpin the market's strong consensus against an attempt materializing this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$39,599Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system remains highly centralized under President Vladimir Putin, whose control over security services, military command, and elite appointments has limited visible pathways for a coup attempt through mid-2026. European intelligence reports from March onward noted heightened Kremlin security measures, including bunker use and surveillance, amid elite tensions and Ukrainian drone threats, yet no organized plot or leadership challenge has materialized. Putin has sustained public appearances, including at the June 2026 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, while sidelined figures like Sergei Shoigu retain influence without evident mobilization. Analysts cite the absence of precursors such as open military defections or coordinated elite defections, consistent with the regime's post-2023 consolidation after the Wagner events. These factors underpin the market's strong consensus against an attempt materializing this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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