Recent May 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year—up from 2.8% in April and the highest since September 2025—anchors trader sentiment for the June reading, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to 2.85%. Persistent shelter costs, transportation services, and medical care inflation have sustained the annual rate despite a softer 0.2% monthly core gain, while energy-driven headline CPI at 4.2% has not yet fed through. Closely matched probabilities around 2.8–2.9% reflect uncertainty over base effects and services stickiness ahead of the July 14 release, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and labor-market data as key swing factors influencing rate expectations and implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.9% 48%
2.8% 39%
2.7% 31%
3.1% 30%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
≤2.4%
28%
2.5%
17%
2.6%
11%
2.7%
31%
2.8%
39%
2.9%
48%
3.0%
22%
3.1%
30%
3.2%
13%
≥3.3%
29%
2.9% 48%
2.8% 39%
2.7% 31%
3.1% 30%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
≤2.4%
$28 Vol.
28%
2.5%
$304 Vol.
17%
2.6%
$54 Vol.
11%
2.7%
$1 Vol.
31%
2.8%
$0 Vol.
39%
2.9%
$0 Vol.
48%
3.0%
$0 Vol.
22%
3.1%
$41 Vol.
30%
3.2%
$70 Vol.
13%
≥3.3%
$44 Vol.
29%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year—up from 2.8% in April and the highest since September 2025—anchors trader sentiment for the June reading, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to 2.85%. Persistent shelter costs, transportation services, and medical care inflation have sustained the annual rate despite a softer 0.2% monthly core gain, while energy-driven headline CPI at 4.2% has not yet fed through. Closely matched probabilities around 2.8–2.9% reflect uncertainty over base effects and services stickiness ahead of the July 14 release, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and labor-market data as key swing factors influencing rate expectations and implied probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$542End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year—up from 2.8% in April and the highest since September 2025—anchors trader sentiment for the June reading, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to 2.85%. Persistent shelter costs, transportation services, and medical care inflation have sustained the annual rate despite a softer 0.2% monthly core gain, while energy-driven headline CPI at 4.2% has not yet fed through. Closely matched probabilities around 2.8–2.9% reflect uncertainty over base effects and services stickiness ahead of the July 14 release, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and labor-market data as key swing factors influencing rate expectations and implied probabilities.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$542End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year—up from 2.8% in April and the highest since September 2025—anchors trader sentiment for the June reading, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to 2.85%. Persistent shelter costs, transportation services, and medical care inflation have sustained the annual rate despite a softer 0.2% monthly core gain, while energy-driven headline CPI at 4.2% has not yet fed through. Closely matched probabilities around 2.8–2.9% reflect uncertainty over base effects and services stickiness ahead of the July 14 release, with the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and labor-market data as key swing factors influencing rate expectations and implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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