The U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—framed by the Trump administration as targeting a narco-terrorist—marks the year's sole such operation, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for "No" on another capture. Since then, no verifiable military actions have targeted other heads of state, amid diplomatic fallout, a U.S. special forces soldier's indictment for alleged insider trading on the raid, and focus on Venezuela's post-Maduro transition, including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez. Absent active invasions, escalations, or official announcements against figures in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere, traders view repeats as improbable given historical rarity (e.g., Saddam Hussein in 2003) and institutional risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
$48,646 Vol.
$48,646 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$48,646 Vol.
$48,646 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—framed by the Trump administration as targeting a narco-terrorist—marks the year's sole such operation, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for "No" on another capture. Since then, no verifiable military actions have targeted other heads of state, amid diplomatic fallout, a U.S. special forces soldier's indictment for alleged insider trading on the raid, and focus on Venezuela's post-Maduro transition, including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez. Absent active invasions, escalations, or official announcements against figures in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere, traders view repeats as improbable given historical rarity (e.g., Saddam Hussein in 2003) and institutional risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$48,646End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—framed by the Trump administration as targeting a narco-terrorist—marks the year's sole such operation, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for "No" on another capture. Since then, no verifiable military actions have targeted other heads of state, amid diplomatic fallout, a U.S. special forces soldier's indictment for alleged insider trading on the raid, and focus on Venezuela's post-Maduro transition, including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez. Absent active invasions, escalations, or official announcements against figures in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere, traders view repeats as improbable given historical rarity (e.g., Saddam Hussein in 2003) and institutional risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$48,646End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. special forces raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026—framed by the Trump administration as targeting a narco-terrorist—marks the year's sole such operation, anchoring trader consensus at 89.5% for "No" on another capture. Since then, no verifiable military actions have targeted other heads of state, amid diplomatic fallout, a U.S. special forces soldier's indictment for alleged insider trading on the raid, and focus on Venezuela's post-Maduro transition, including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez. Absent active invasions, escalations, or official announcements against figures in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere, traders view repeats as improbable given historical rarity (e.g., Saddam Hussein in 2003) and institutional risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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