Traders assign an 87.5% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to prioritize gray-zone pressure and political influence operations over large-scale amphibious operations. Recent months have seen sustained but lower-than-average PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, routine China Coast Guard patrols near outlying islands, and diplomatic signaling through opposition-party engagement ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timetable for invasion and are instead focused on shaping conditions for eventual unification short of conflict. Ongoing U.S.-Taiwan arms sales, trade arrangements, and multilateral security cooperation further raise the anticipated costs of military action, reinforcing market expectations that escalation thresholds will not be crossed within the resolution window.