**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain outcome that no new broad tariff increase on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30, 2026, with “No” at 97.8%.** This reflects the absence of any executive proclamation, Federal Register notice, or U.S. Customs guidance signaling an imminent hike, combined with recent targeted adjustments that have lowered rather than raised duties on certain derivatives. Existing measures already in place include the 10% Section 122 temporary import surcharge (effective February 24, 2026, and set to expire July 24 unless extended by Congress), which largely exempts CUSMA-compliant goods, plus longstanding Section 232 tariffs at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper products (with some derivative rates reduced effective June 8). Broader IEEPA-based actions were struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026, prompting a shift to narrower authorities without escalation. Negotiations ahead of the July CUSMA review continue, and prior threats of 30–35% or even 100% blanket tariffs have not materialized into new actions. The high implied probability captures the low likelihood of last-minute policy shifts in the remaining days before the deadline, as markets weigh stable bilateral engagement and the economic costs of further escalation. Tail-risk scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected presidential proclamation tied to stalled talks, renewed emphasis on fentanyl flows or the bilateral trade deficit, or a sudden breakdown in CUSMA-related discussions that prompts rapid implementation of higher duties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$39,413 Vol.
$39,413 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$39,413 Vol.
$39,413 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain outcome that no new broad tariff increase on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30, 2026, with “No” at 97.8%.** This reflects the absence of any executive proclamation, Federal Register notice, or U.S. Customs guidance signaling an imminent hike, combined with recent targeted adjustments that have lowered rather than raised duties on certain derivatives.
Existing measures already in place include the 10% Section 122 temporary import surcharge (effective February 24, 2026, and set to expire July 24 unless extended by Congress), which largely exempts CUSMA-compliant goods, plus longstanding Section 232 tariffs at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper products (with some derivative rates reduced effective June 8). Broader IEEPA-based actions were struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026, prompting a shift to narrower authorities without escalation. Negotiations ahead of the July CUSMA review continue, and prior threats of 30–35% or even 100% blanket tariffs have not materialized into new actions.
The high implied probability captures the low likelihood of last-minute policy shifts in the remaining days before the deadline, as markets weigh stable bilateral engagement and the economic costs of further escalation. Tail-risk scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected presidential proclamation tied to stalled talks, renewed emphasis on fentanyl flows or the bilateral trade deficit, or a sudden breakdown in CUSMA-related discussions that prompts rapid implementation of higher duties.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$39,413End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain outcome that no new broad tariff increase on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30, 2026, with “No” at 97.8%.** This reflects the absence of any executive proclamation, Federal Register notice, or U.S. Customs guidance signaling an imminent hike, combined with recent targeted adjustments that have lowered rather than raised duties on certain derivatives.
Existing measures already in place include the 10% Section 122 temporary import surcharge (effective February 24, 2026, and set to expire July 24 unless extended by Congress), which largely exempts CUSMA-compliant goods, plus longstanding Section 232 tariffs at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper products (with some derivative rates reduced effective June 8). Broader IEEPA-based actions were struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026, prompting a shift to narrower authorities without escalation. Negotiations ahead of the July CUSMA review continue, and prior threats of 30–35% or even 100% blanket tariffs have not materialized into new actions.
The high implied probability captures the low likelihood of last-minute policy shifts in the remaining days before the deadline, as markets weigh stable bilateral engagement and the economic costs of further escalation. Tail-risk scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected presidential proclamation tied to stalled talks, renewed emphasis on fentanyl flows or the bilateral trade deficit, or a sudden breakdown in CUSMA-related discussions that prompts rapid implementation of higher duties.
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation.
A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$39,413End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 24, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain outcome that no new broad tariff increase on Canadian goods will take effect by June 30, 2026, with “No” at 97.8%.** This reflects the absence of any executive proclamation, Federal Register notice, or U.S. Customs guidance signaling an imminent hike, combined with recent targeted adjustments that have lowered rather than raised duties on certain derivatives. Existing measures already in place include the 10% Section 122 temporary import surcharge (effective February 24, 2026, and set to expire July 24 unless extended by Congress), which largely exempts CUSMA-compliant goods, plus longstanding Section 232 tariffs at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper products (with some derivative rates reduced effective June 8). Broader IEEPA-based actions were struck down by the Supreme Court in February 2026, prompting a shift to narrower authorities without escalation. Negotiations ahead of the July CUSMA review continue, and prior threats of 30–35% or even 100% blanket tariffs have not materialized into new actions. The high implied probability captures the low likelihood of last-minute policy shifts in the remaining days before the deadline, as markets weigh stable bilateral engagement and the economic costs of further escalation. Tail-risk scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unexpected presidential proclamation tied to stalled talks, renewed emphasis on fentanyl flows or the bilateral trade deficit, or a sudden breakdown in CUSMA-related discussions that prompts rapid implementation of higher duties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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