Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of verifiable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical preparations in the Taiwan Strait over recent months. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification by force and continues to favor coercive measures short of war, including routine joint combat readiness patrols and blockade-style exercises. With the resolution window closing in roughly two weeks, any full-scale offensive would require detectable prior movements that have not materialized. Remaining uncertainty centers on the low-probability risk of rapid, undetected escalation or miscalculation during ongoing gray-zone activity, though such developments remain inconsistent with observed patterns.