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Politics·China

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Politics·China

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

18% chance
Polymarket

$423,835 Vol.

18% chance
Polymarket

$423,835 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment determined China lacks plans for a 2027 Taiwan invasion, emphasizing Beijing's preference for gray-zone coercion over high-risk amphibious assault; this assessment drives the 82% "No" trader consensus amid absent escalatory signals. Recent PLA drills in the East China Sea (April 18) and Taiwan Strait incursions by China Coast Guard (early April) mirror routine activities without blockade rehearsals or mass mobilizations. US senators' April 16 reassurance of pending arms sales, alongside Taiwan's extended Han Kuang war games, reinforces deterrence. Ongoing cross-strait economic ties and potential US intervention risks further temper invasion probabilities through December 2027, though diplomatic tensions or leadership shifts could prompt volatility.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$423,835
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment determined China lacks plans for a 2027 Taiwan invasion, emphasizing Beijing's preference for gray-zone coercion over high-risk amphibious assault; this assessment drives the 82% "No" trader consensus amid absent escalatory signals. Recent PLA drills in the East China Sea (April 18) and Taiwan Strait incursions by China Coast Guard (early April) mirror routine activities without blockade rehearsals or mass mobilizations. US senators' April 16 reassurance of pending arms sales, alongside Taiwan's extended Han Kuang war games, reinforces deterrence. Ongoing cross-strait economic ties and potential US intervention risks further temper invasion probabilities through December 2027, though diplomatic tensions or leadership shifts could prompt volatility.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$426,260
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 18% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 18¢, the market collectively assigns a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" has generated $423.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" is 18% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 18% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.