Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly recent Opus and Sonnet releases, drive the overwhelming market consensus through superior performance on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and agentic workflows involving multi-file refactoring and autonomous debugging. Developer adoption of Claude Code tools and consistent enterprise preference for its large context handling and instruction-following have reinforced this lead in the weeks leading to end-of-June evaluation. While OpenAI’s GPT variants and Codex remain competitive on general reasoning, they trail in specialized software engineering tasks according to recent third-party comparisons. Potential challenges include a major new model release from another lab or shifts in benchmark methodologies before resolution, though current evidence of Anthropic’s edge remains stable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 92%
OpenAI 4.4%
Z.ai 3.0%
Google 2.4%
$16,860 Vol.
$16,860 Vol.

Anthropic
92%

OpenAI
4%

Z.ai
3%

2%

xAI
1%

Microsoft
1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meta
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 4.4%
Z.ai 3.0%
Google 2.4%
$16,860 Vol.
$16,860 Vol.

Anthropic
92%

OpenAI
4%

Z.ai
3%

2%

xAI
1%

Microsoft
1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meta
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly recent Opus and Sonnet releases, drive the overwhelming market consensus through superior performance on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and agentic workflows involving multi-file refactoring and autonomous debugging. Developer adoption of Claude Code tools and consistent enterprise preference for its large context handling and instruction-following have reinforced this lead in the weeks leading to end-of-June evaluation. While OpenAI’s GPT variants and Codex remain competitive on general reasoning, they trail in specialized software engineering tasks according to recent third-party comparisons. Potential challenges include a major new model release from another lab or shifts in benchmark methodologies before resolution, though current evidence of Anthropic’s edge remains stable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions