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icon for UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Blake Moore

$0 Vol.

55%

Karianne Lisonbee

$70 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Blake Moore holds a slim edge over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee in the June 23 Republican primary for Utah’s newly redrawn 2nd Congressional District. Recent debate exchanges and mail-ballot distribution have kept the contest tight, with traders pricing in limited policy divergence on redistricting, data-center development, and federal funding priorities for the Great Salt Lake. Moore’s congressional tenure and leadership role provide structural advantages, while Lisonbee’s legislative record and convention performance sustain challenger momentum. Absent major endorsements, fundraising shifts, or late revelations before election day, the race remains sensitive to turnout among Republican primary voters in Davis, Weber, and northern counties.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$70
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Blake Moore holds a slim edge over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee in the June 23 Republican primary for Utah’s newly redrawn 2nd Congressional District. Recent debate exchanges and mail-ballot distribution have kept the contest tight, with traders pricing in limited policy divergence on redistricting, data-center development, and federal funding priorities for the Great Salt Lake. Moore’s congressional tenure and leadership role provide structural advantages, while Lisonbee’s legislative record and convention performance sustain challenger momentum. Absent major endorsements, fundraising shifts, or late revelations before election day, the race remains sensitive to turnout among Republican primary voters in Davis, Weber, and northern counties.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$70
Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Blake Moore" at 56%, followed by "Karianne Lisonbee" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 10, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "UT-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Blake Moore" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Karianne Lisonbee" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UT-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.