Trader consensus tilts slightly against a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026 at 51% "No," amid President Erdoğan's January declaration of the year as one for reforms and the AKP's February constitutional reform roadmap, which has yet to yield a formal parliamentary proposal requiring a 360-vote supermajority to trigger a referendum. AKP parliamentary seat gains in January and a deputy speaker's mid-February prediction of steps enabling Erdoğan's potential re-election have narrowed the gap, fostering uncertainty in this closely contested market. Economic structural reforms emphasized by Treasury Minister Simşek last week compete for priority, while an imminent amendment submission or MHP coalition push could swing odds toward "Yes," or delays amid early election speculation might reinforce "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus tilts slightly against a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026 at 51% "No," amid President Erdoğan's January declaration of the year as one for reforms and the AKP's February constitutional reform roadmap, which has yet to yield a formal parliamentary proposal requiring a 360-vote supermajority to trigger a referendum. AKP parliamentary seat gains in January and a deputy speaker's mid-February prediction of steps enabling Erdoğan's potential re-election have narrowed the gap, fostering uncertainty in this closely contested market. Economic structural reforms emphasized by Treasury Minister Simşek last week compete for priority, while an imminent amendment submission or MHP coalition push could swing odds toward "Yes," or delays amid early election speculation might reinforce "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus tilts slightly against a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026 at 51% "No," amid President Erdoğan's January declaration of the year as one for reforms and the AKP's February constitutional reform roadmap, which has yet to yield a formal parliamentary proposal requiring a 360-vote supermajority to trigger a referendum. AKP parliamentary seat gains in January and a deputy speaker's mid-February prediction of steps enabling Erdoğan's potential re-election have narrowed the gap, fostering uncertainty in this closely contested market. Economic structural reforms emphasized by Treasury Minister Simşek last week compete for priority, while an imminent amendment submission or MHP coalition push could swing odds toward "Yes," or delays amid early election speculation might reinforce "No."
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$400End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus tilts slightly against a Turkish constitutional referendum announcement in 2026 at 51% "No," amid President Erdoğan's January declaration of the year as one for reforms and the AKP's February constitutional reform roadmap, which has yet to yield a formal parliamentary proposal requiring a 360-vote supermajority to trigger a referendum. AKP parliamentary seat gains in January and a deputy speaker's mid-February prediction of steps enabling Erdoğan's potential re-election have narrowed the gap, fostering uncertainty in this closely contested market. Economic structural reforms emphasized by Treasury Minister Simşek last week compete for priority, while an imminent amendment submission or MHP coalition push could swing odds toward "Yes," or delays amid early election speculation might reinforce "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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