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Politics·Remove

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

icon for Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?
Politics·Remove

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

4% chance
Polymarket

$87,977 Vol.

4% chance
Polymarket

$87,977 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that President Trump will not attempt to remove Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair before leaving office, driven by Powell's term expiring May 15, 2026, and Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as successor pending Senate confirmation. Despite Trump's April 15 threats to fire Powell if he remains a Fed governor post-term—amid disputes over interest rate policy—no formal removal action has materialized in the ensuing weeks, with the Justice Department dropping its probe into Powell last week. Legal precedents affirming "for cause" removal standards for Fed officials, upheld even by Trump-appointed judges, reinforce institutional barriers. Powell's April 29 announcement to stay on the Board as governor shifts focus away from the Chair role. Late escalations like emergency executive action or court challenges could theoretically shift odds, though procedural timelines make them improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$87,977
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that President Trump will not attempt to remove Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair before leaving office, driven by Powell's term expiring May 15, 2026, and Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as successor pending Senate confirmation. Despite Trump's April 15 threats to fire Powell if he remains a Fed governor post-term—amid disputes over interest rate policy—no formal removal action has materialized in the ensuing weeks, with the Justice Department dropping its probe into Powell last week. Legal precedents affirming "for cause" removal standards for Fed officials, upheld even by Trump-appointed judges, reinforce institutional barriers. Powell's April 29 announcement to stay on the Board as governor shifts focus away from the Chair role. Late escalations like emergency executive action or court challenges could theoretically shift odds, though procedural timelines make them improbable.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$88,512
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 4% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 4¢, the market collectively assigns a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" has generated $88K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" is 4% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.