James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the party's general election nominee. The Republican primary advanced incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton to a May 26 runoff, where recent TPOR polls show Paxton leading 48% to 40% among likely GOP voters, driving trader consensus toward a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58%. Fresh head-to-head surveys indicate Talarico edging both Republicans—46-41% over Paxton and 44-41% over Cornyn—amid his record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul, heightening competitiveness as the runoff approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas Senate Election Matchup
Texas Senate Election Matchup
Talarico & Paxton 58%
Talarico & Cornyn 41%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Other <1%
$707,428 Vol.
$707,428 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
58%
Talarico & Cornyn
41%
Crockett & Hunt
1%
Other
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
<1%
Talarico & Paxton 58%
Talarico & Cornyn 41%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Other <1%
$707,428 Vol.
$707,428 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
$266,938 Vol.
58%
Talarico & Cornyn
$192,300 Vol.
41%
Crockett & Hunt
$26,468 Vol.
1%
Other
$27,374 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
$105,556 Vol.
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
$23,958 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
$64,832 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the party's general election nominee. The Republican primary advanced incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton to a May 26 runoff, where recent TPOR polls show Paxton leading 48% to 40% among likely GOP voters, driving trader consensus toward a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58%. Fresh head-to-head surveys indicate Talarico edging both Republicans—46-41% over Paxton and 44-41% over Cornyn—amid his record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul, heightening competitiveness as the runoff approaches.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$707,428End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the party's general election nominee. The Republican primary advanced incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton to a May 26 runoff, where recent TPOR polls show Paxton leading 48% to 40% among likely GOP voters, driving trader consensus toward a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58%. Fresh head-to-head surveys indicate Talarico edging both Republicans—46-41% over Paxton and 44-41% over Cornyn—amid his record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul, heightening competitiveness as the runoff approaches.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$707,428End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...James Talarico clinched the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, solidifying his position as the party's general election nominee. The Republican primary advanced incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton to a May 26 runoff, where recent TPOR polls show Paxton leading 48% to 40% among likely GOP voters, driving trader consensus toward a Talarico-Paxton matchup at 58%. Fresh head-to-head surveys indicate Talarico edging both Republicans—46-41% over Paxton and 44-41% over Cornyn—amid his record $27 million Q1 fundraising haul, heightening competitiveness as the runoff approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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