Recent Trump-Putin phone discussions on April 29, where Putin proposed a short-term Ukraine ceasefire coinciding with Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade, have boosted trader optimism, prompting Kyiv to seek clarification via Washington while countering with a long-term truce offer. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov highlighted US-brokered talks progressing toward compromise on territorial limits, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner slated for a Kyiv visit. Amid ongoing Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian assets and mutual war fatigue after four years, this diplomatic thaw—contrasting stalled prior efforts—underpins the 55% Yes implied probability for a ceasefire by end-2027, though maximalist positions persist and military actions continue.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$191,725 Vol.
$191,725 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
$191,725 Vol.
$191,725 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent Trump-Putin phone discussions on April 29, where Putin proposed a short-term Ukraine ceasefire coinciding with Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade, have boosted trader optimism, prompting Kyiv to seek clarification via Washington while countering with a long-term truce offer. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov highlighted US-brokered talks progressing toward compromise on territorial limits, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner slated for a Kyiv visit. Amid ongoing Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian assets and mutual war fatigue after four years, this diplomatic thaw—contrasting stalled prior efforts—underpins the 55% Yes implied probability for a ceasefire by end-2027, though maximalist positions persist and military actions continue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$191,725End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent Trump-Putin phone discussions on April 29, where Putin proposed a short-term Ukraine ceasefire coinciding with Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade, have boosted trader optimism, prompting Kyiv to seek clarification via Washington while countering with a long-term truce offer. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov highlighted US-brokered talks progressing toward compromise on territorial limits, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner slated for a Kyiv visit. Amid ongoing Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian assets and mutual war fatigue after four years, this diplomatic thaw—contrasting stalled prior efforts—underpins the 55% Yes implied probability for a ceasefire by end-2027, though maximalist positions persist and military actions continue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$191,725End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Trump-Putin phone discussions on April 29, where Putin proposed a short-term Ukraine ceasefire coinciding with Russia's May 9 Victory Day parade, have boosted trader optimism, prompting Kyiv to seek clarification via Washington while countering with a long-term truce offer. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov highlighted US-brokered talks progressing toward compromise on territorial limits, with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner slated for a Kyiv visit. Amid ongoing Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian assets and mutual war fatigue after four years, this diplomatic thaw—contrasting stalled prior efforts—underpins the 55% Yes implied probability for a ceasefire by end-2027, though maximalist positions persist and military actions continue.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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