This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, which the Verkhovna Rada extended for 90 days on April 28, 2026, effective May 4 until early August amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that elections require a ceasefire and security guarantees, ruling out 2026 votes due to war risks, occupied territories, and displaced voters complicating fair participation. Late 2025 talks on wartime election laws stalled without passage. Traders monitor de-escalation signals, peace negotiations, or the next martial law extension vote around August for potential shifts, as Zelenskyy's term continues legitimately under current law.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, which the Verkhovna Rada extended for 90 days on April 28, 2026, effective May 4 until early August amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that elections require a ceasefire and security guarantees, ruling out 2026 votes due to war risks, occupied territories, and displaced voters complicating fair participation. Late 2025 talks on wartime election laws stalled without passage. Traders monitor de-escalation signals, peace negotiations, or the next martial law extension vote around August for potential shifts, as Zelenskyy's term continues legitimately under current law.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 24 2026
RFE/RL reported renewed U.S. pressure for a Ukrainian vote, but Ukrainian officials reiterated that martial law must be lifted first, leading to the market’s lowest level as the
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%10%
RFE/RL reported renewed U.S. pressure for a Ukrainian vote, but Ukrainian officials reiterated that martial law must be lifted first, leading to the market’s lowest level as the “No” outcome became dominant
Apr 10 2026
DW reports Zelensky pushes back on premature election rumors, emphasizing that a cease‑fire must precede any vote, reinforcing market pessimism
June 30, 2026 drops to 5%7%
DW reports Zelensky pushes back on premature election rumors, emphasizing that a cease‑fire must precede any vote, reinforcing market pessimism
Apr 9 2026
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but stabilising them ||
Mar 13 2026
Al Jazeera highlighted expert testimony that any election could not realistically occur before March 2026, reinforcing the view that 2025‑2026 elections were unlikely and pushing
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%8%
Al Jazeera highlighted expert testimony that any election could not realistically occur before March 2026, reinforcing the view that 2025‑2026 elections were unlikely and pushing the
Mar 1 2026
Carnegie Endowment notes renewed speculation after former army chief Valery Zaluzhnyi’s interview, suggesting internal pressure for an election timetable
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Carnegie Endowment notes renewed speculation after former army chief Valery Zaluzhnyi’s interview, suggesting internal pressure for an election timetable
Feb 28 2026
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market optimism ||
Feb 20 2026
RFE/RL reports that the Ukrainian government is exploring legal pathways to hold elections under martial law after U.S.
pressure, reinforcing the possibility of a 2025 vote
Feb 13 2026
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting
June 30, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting “Yes” odds ||
Feb 13 2026
Zelensky announces Ukraine could be ready for elections in 60‑90 days if international partners guarantee security, sparking a brief
June 30, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
Zelensky announces Ukraine could be ready for elections in 60‑90 days if international partners guarantee security, sparking a brief
Feb 7 2026
Kyiv Post reported that a parliamentary working group was expected to present draft wartime election legislation by the end of February, briefly reviving hopes for a near‑term vote
December 31, 2026 jumps to 29%8%
Kyiv Post reported that a parliamentary working group was expected to present draft wartime election legislation by the end of February, briefly reviving hopes for a near‑term vote
Feb 5 2026
Carnegie’s analysis warned that the Ukrainian constitution still bars elections under martial law, and no draft law had been presented, causing a sharp decline in market confidence
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
Carnegie’s analysis warned that the Ukrainian constitution still bars elections under martial law, and no draft law had been presented, causing a sharp decline in market confidence
Jan 15 2026
U.S. officials press Ukraine to schedule elections, and Zelensky reports a “substantive discussion” with parliament on holding a vote despite martial‑law limits
U.S. officials press Ukraine to schedule elections, and Zelensky reports a “substantive discussion” with parliament on holding a vote despite martial‑law limits
Jan 8 2026
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%6%
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
Dec 26 2025
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower ||
Dec 25 2025
RFE/RL noted President Zelensky’s “substantive discussion” with parliament on holding elections amid U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%8%
pressure, but also highlighted continued Russian attacks, prompting a
Dec 22 2025
Pravda reported that the Servant of the People faction created a fast‑track working group to organise presidential elections under martial law, further boosting expectations
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%6%
Pravda reported that the Servant of the People faction created a fast‑track working group to organise presidential elections under martial law, further boosting expectations
Dec 15 2025
Ukrainian parliament announced the formation of a cross‑party working group to draft a one‑off wartime election law, suggesting a legislative path to voting under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%6%
Ukrainian parliament announced the formation of a cross‑party working group to draft a one‑off wartime election law, suggesting a legislative path to voting under martial law
Dec 10 2025
CNN explainer notes Zelensky’s claim that elections could be possible in the next 90 days, raising hopes for a 2025 vote
June 30, 2026 surges to 36%15%
CNN explainer notes Zelensky’s claim that elections could be possible in the next 90 days, raising hopes for a 2025 vote
Dec 10 2025
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
June 30, 2026 dips to 30%4%
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
Dec 9 2025
CNN reported President Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, raising short‑term optimism despite martial‑law
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%4%
CNN reported President Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, raising short‑term optimism despite martial‑law constraints
Dec 8 2025
Zelensky meets EU leaders in Dublin and says Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided
Zelensky meets EU leaders in Dublin and says Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided
Nov 24 2025
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes”
June 30, 2026 surges to 38%16%
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds ||
Nov 16 2025
Ukraine’s OSCE‑PA seminar in Istanbul highlighted plans to prepare post‑war elections, signalling growing confidence that voting could resume once martial law ends
December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%12%
Ukraine’s OSCE‑PA seminar in Istanbul highlighted plans to prepare post‑war elections, signalling growing confidence that voting could resume once martial law ends
Oct 15 2025
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
June 30, 2026 rises to 22%1%
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
Sep 25 2025
President Zelensky tells Axios he is “ready” to step aside after the war, signalling no personal push for an early vote
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
President Zelensky tells Axios he is “ready” to step aside after the war, signalling no personal push for an early vote
Mar 6 2025
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
Mar 6 2025
Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly reject any wartime election, stressing legal barriers
Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly reject any wartime election, stressing legal barriers
Feb 26 2025
Ukraine’s parliament re‑affirms that elections cannot be held under martial law and pledges to vote only after the war ends
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
Ukraine’s parliament re‑affirms that elections cannot be held under martial law and pledges to vote only after the war ends
Feb 26 2025
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, which the Verkhovna Rada extended for 90 days on April 28, 2026, effective May 4 until early August amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that elections require a ceasefire and security guarantees, ruling out 2026 votes due to war risks, occupied territories, and displaced voters complicating fair participation. Late 2025 talks on wartime election laws stalled without passage. Traders monitor de-escalation signals, peace negotiations, or the next martial law extension vote around August for potential shifts, as Zelenskyy's term continues legitimately under current law.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ukraine's constitution prohibits presidential and parliamentary elections during martial law, which the Verkhovna Rada extended for 90 days on April 28, 2026, effective May 4 until early August amid the ongoing Russian invasion. President Zelenskyy reiterated in February that elections require a ceasefire and security guarantees, ruling out 2026 votes due to war risks, occupied territories, and displaced voters complicating fair participation. Late 2025 talks on wartime election laws stalled without passage. Traders monitor de-escalation signals, peace negotiations, or the next martial law extension vote around August for potential shifts, as Zelenskyy's term continues legitimately under current law.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 24 2026
RFE/RL reported renewed U.S. pressure for a Ukrainian vote, but Ukrainian officials reiterated that martial law must be lifted first, leading to the market’s lowest level as the
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%10%
RFE/RL reported renewed U.S. pressure for a Ukrainian vote, but Ukrainian officials reiterated that martial law must be lifted first, leading to the market’s lowest level as the “No” outcome became dominant
Apr 10 2026
DW reports Zelensky pushes back on premature election rumors, emphasizing that a cease‑fire must precede any vote, reinforcing market pessimism
June 30, 2026 drops to 5%7%
DW reports Zelensky pushes back on premature election rumors, emphasizing that a cease‑fire must precede any vote, reinforcing market pessimism
Apr 9 2026
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
| Al Jazeera analysis states that even with a draft law, logistical constraints mean the earliest realistic election date would be March 2026, keeping “Yes” odds low but stabilising them ||
Mar 13 2026
Al Jazeera highlighted expert testimony that any election could not realistically occur before March 2026, reinforcing the view that 2025‑2026 elections were unlikely and pushing
December 31, 2026 drops to 21%8%
Al Jazeera highlighted expert testimony that any election could not realistically occur before March 2026, reinforcing the view that 2025‑2026 elections were unlikely and pushing the
Mar 1 2026
Carnegie Endowment notes renewed speculation after former army chief Valery Zaluzhnyi’s interview, suggesting internal pressure for an election timetable
June 30, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Carnegie Endowment notes renewed speculation after former army chief Valery Zaluzhnyi’s interview, suggesting internal pressure for an election timetable
Feb 28 2026
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%5%
| Ukrainian Ministry of Justice publishes a legal opinion confirming that any election called before a formal lift of martial law would be unconstitutional, dampening market optimism ||
Feb 20 2026
RFE/RL reports that the Ukrainian government is exploring legal pathways to hold elections under martial law after U.S.
pressure, reinforcing the possibility of a 2025 vote
Feb 13 2026
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting
June 30, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
| Carnegie Endowment reports that a parliamentary working group is expected to present draft election legislation by the end of February, reviving hopes of a 2026 vote and lifting “Yes” odds ||
Feb 13 2026
Zelensky announces Ukraine could be ready for elections in 60‑90 days if international partners guarantee security, sparking a brief
June 30, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
Zelensky announces Ukraine could be ready for elections in 60‑90 days if international partners guarantee security, sparking a brief
Feb 7 2026
Kyiv Post reported that a parliamentary working group was expected to present draft wartime election legislation by the end of February, briefly reviving hopes for a near‑term vote
December 31, 2026 jumps to 29%8%
Kyiv Post reported that a parliamentary working group was expected to present draft wartime election legislation by the end of February, briefly reviving hopes for a near‑term vote
Feb 5 2026
Carnegie’s analysis warned that the Ukrainian constitution still bars elections under martial law, and no draft law had been presented, causing a sharp decline in market confidence
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
Carnegie’s analysis warned that the Ukrainian constitution still bars elections under martial law, and no draft law had been presented, causing a sharp decline in market confidence
Jan 15 2026
U.S. officials press Ukraine to schedule elections, and Zelensky reports a “substantive discussion” with parliament on holding a vote despite martial‑law limits
U.S. officials press Ukraine to schedule elections, and Zelensky reports a “substantive discussion” with parliament on holding a vote despite martial‑law limits
Jan 8 2026
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%6%
| President Zelenskyy tells a Dublin press conference that “no election will be held before the war ends,” reaffirming the martial‑law ban and driving the|
Dec 26 2025
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower
June 30, 2026 drops to 24%6%
| Follow‑up Reuters analysis notes that the draft election law faces strong opposition in the Rada and is unlikely to pass before the end of 2025, sending “Yes” odds sharply lower ||
Dec 25 2025
RFE/RL noted President Zelensky’s “substantive discussion” with parliament on holding elections amid U.S.
December 31, 2026 drops to 33%8%
pressure, but also highlighted continued Russian attacks, prompting a
Dec 22 2025
Pravda reported that the Servant of the People faction created a fast‑track working group to organise presidential elections under martial law, further boosting expectations
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%6%
Pravda reported that the Servant of the People faction created a fast‑track working group to organise presidential elections under martial law, further boosting expectations
Dec 15 2025
Ukrainian parliament announced the formation of a cross‑party working group to draft a one‑off wartime election law, suggesting a legislative path to voting under martial law
December 31, 2026 drops to 41%6%
Ukrainian parliament announced the formation of a cross‑party working group to draft a one‑off wartime election law, suggesting a legislative path to voting under martial law
Dec 10 2025
CNN explainer notes Zelensky’s claim that elections could be possible in the next 90 days, raising hopes for a 2025 vote
June 30, 2026 surges to 36%15%
CNN explainer notes Zelensky’s claim that elections could be possible in the next 90 days, raising hopes for a 2025 vote
Dec 10 2025
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
June 30, 2026 dips to 30%4%
| CNN explainer reports President Zelenskyy says Ukraine could hold elections in the “next 60‑90 days” only if security guarantees are met, prompting a short‑term|
Dec 9 2025
CNN reported President Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, raising short‑term optimism despite martial‑law
December 31, 2026 rises to 52%4%
CNN reported President Zelensky’s statement that Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security were guaranteed, raising short‑term optimism despite martial‑law constraints
Dec 8 2025
Zelensky meets EU leaders in Dublin and says Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided
Zelensky meets EU leaders in Dublin and says Ukraine could hold elections within 60‑90 days if security guarantees are provided
Nov 24 2025
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes”
June 30, 2026 surges to 38%16%
| Ukrainian parliament’s special working group releases a draft law that would allow elections to be called within 30 days of a martial‑law lift, sparking a brief rally in “Yes” odds ||
Nov 16 2025
Ukraine’s OSCE‑PA seminar in Istanbul highlighted plans to prepare post‑war elections, signalling growing confidence that voting could resume once martial law ends
December 31, 2026 jumps to 63%12%
Ukraine’s OSCE‑PA seminar in Istanbul highlighted plans to prepare post‑war elections, signalling growing confidence that voting could resume once martial law ends
Oct 15 2025
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
June 30, 2026 rises to 22%1%
| OSCE Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Istanbul highlights Ukraine’s “post‑conflict election readiness” but notes that no concrete timetable exists, keeping optimism modest ||
Sep 25 2025
President Zelensky tells Axios he is “ready” to step aside after the war, signalling no personal push for an early vote
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
President Zelensky tells Axios he is “ready” to step aside after the war, signalling no personal push for an early vote
Mar 6 2025
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
June 30, 2026 drops to 21%6%
| Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly state they will continue to oppose any wartime elections, citing legal bans ||
Mar 6 2025
Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly reject any wartime election, stressing legal barriers
Opposition leaders Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko publicly reject any wartime election, stressing legal barriers
Feb 26 2025
Ukraine’s parliament re‑affirms that elections cannot be held under martial law and pledges to vote only after the war ends
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
Ukraine’s parliament re‑affirms that elections cannot be held under martial law and pledges to vote only after the war ends
Feb 26 2025
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
June 30, 2026 plunges to 27%24%
| Verkhovna Rada passes a resolution reaffirming that elections are prohibited during martial law and pledges to hold a presidential election only after the war ends ||
"Ukraine election held by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 14%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Ukraine election held by...?" has generated $2.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 14, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Ukraine election held by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Ukraine election held by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Ukraine election held by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Ukraine election held by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $2.2 million traded on “Ukraine election held by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Ukraine election held by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 14¢ for "December 31, 2026" in the "Ukraine election held by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 14% chance that "December 31, 2026" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 14¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 86¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Ukraine election held by...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "Ukraine election held by...?" market has an active community of 50 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Ukraine election held by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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