RFK Jr. continues serving as HHS Secretary amid persistent internal and external pressure, including staff calls for his resignation and recent firings of advisory panel leaders. A fresh rumor of possible departure as early as July—promptly denied by the department—has heightened speculation about tenure stability in the remaining months of 2026. These factors, alongside ongoing debates over agency restructuring, budget priorities, and policy implementation, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 60% implied probability for an exit by year-end. Historical patterns of Cabinet turnover and the administration’s midterm positioning add further context without resolving near-term uncertainty.