RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary amid ongoing departmental friction and external scrutiny. Recent developments include a New York Times report citing sources who described limited engagement in agency operations, which he publicly rebutted by highlighting his calendar and policy actions such as the May 2026 dismissal of two U.S. Preventive Services Task Force leaders. Earlier staff letters and family statements from 2025 called for his departure over agency leadership changes, yet he continues appointments and initiatives like updated dietary guidelines. A recent denial of resignation rumors for July 2026 has not eliminated trader perceptions of risk from internal vacancies, turnover, and political pressures through year-end. These factors underpin the 58% implied probability for an exit by December 31.