Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding 63% implied probability in trader consensus for the October 26, 2026, Ottawa municipal election, driven by strong name recognition and a fragmented opposition field that splits anti-incumbent votes. Recent Liaison Strategies polling released April 28 reveals net negative approval ratings for Sutcliffe on housing affordability (-16 net), crime, transit, and homelessness, alongside 61% opposition to the Lansdowne 2.0 redevelopment, yet markets reflect historical municipal incumbency advantages and undecided voter potential. Kitchissippi Councilllor Jeff Leiper trails at 18.5% as the leading challenger, while homebuilder Alex Lawson (5.8%) emphasizes housing solutions and former candidate Catherine McKenney (3.4%) lags amid low momentum; nominations open this May ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark Sutcliffe 63%
Jeff Leiper 19%
Alex Lawson 5.8%
Catherine McKenney 3.4%

Mark Sutcliffe
63%

Jeff Leiper
19%

Alex Lawson
6%

Catherine McKenney
3%

Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
Mark Sutcliffe 63%
Jeff Leiper 19%
Alex Lawson 5.8%
Catherine McKenney 3.4%

Mark Sutcliffe
63%

Jeff Leiper
19%

Alex Lawson
6%

Catherine McKenney
3%

Neil Saravanamuttoo
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding 63% implied probability in trader consensus for the October 26, 2026, Ottawa municipal election, driven by strong name recognition and a fragmented opposition field that splits anti-incumbent votes. Recent Liaison Strategies polling released April 28 reveals net negative approval ratings for Sutcliffe on housing affordability (-16 net), crime, transit, and homelessness, alongside 61% opposition to the Lansdowne 2.0 redevelopment, yet markets reflect historical municipal incumbency advantages and undecided voter potential. Kitchissippi Councilllor Jeff Leiper trails at 18.5% as the leading challenger, while homebuilder Alex Lawson (5.8%) emphasizes housing solutions and former candidate Catherine McKenney (3.4%) lags amid low momentum; nominations open this May ahead of the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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