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Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

David Brock Smith 51.2%

Jo Rae Perkins 39%

Russell McAlmond 3.5%

Joe Johnson 2.0%

Polymarket

$79,654 Vol.

David Brock Smith 51.2%

Jo Rae Perkins 39%

Russell McAlmond 3.5%

Joe Johnson 2.0%

Polymarket

$79,654 Vol.

David Brock Smith

$2,379 Vol.

51%

Jo Rae Perkins

$13,402 Vol.

39%

Russell McAlmond

$13,652 Vol.

3%

Joe Johnson

$9,717 Vol.

2%

David Burch

$22,467 Vol.

2%

Tim Skelton

$8,635 Vol.

1%

Douglas T. Muck Jr.

$6,203 Vol.

1%

Deborah C. Brown

$1,955 Vol.

1%

Brent Barker

$1,244 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.With ballots mailed on April 29 ahead of the May 19 Oregon Republican US Senate primary, trader consensus favors state Sen. David Brock Smith at 50.9% implied probability over Jo Rae Perkins at 38.5%, reflecting his surge from recent endorsements positioning him as the strongest general election challenger to incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley. Willamette Week named Smith Republicans' best bet, citing his cross-aisle work on rural issues like wildfire prevention and estate tax relief for farming properties, while the Oregon Taxpayers Association and top GOP gubernatorial candidates also backed him in the past week. Perkins holds strong name recognition from her 2020 Senate run, but Smith's establishment support has narrowed the field of nine candidates, with others below 4%, in this closely contested nomination race amid limited public polling.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$79,654
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.With ballots mailed on April 29 ahead of the May 19 Oregon Republican US Senate primary, trader consensus favors state Sen. David Brock Smith at 50.9% implied probability over Jo Rae Perkins at 38.5%, reflecting his surge from recent endorsements positioning him as the strongest general election challenger to incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley. Willamette Week named Smith Republicans' best bet, citing his cross-aisle work on rural issues like wildfire prevention and estate tax relief for farming properties, while the Oregon Taxpayers Association and top GOP gubernatorial candidates also backed him in the past week. Perkins holds strong name recognition from her 2020 Senate run, but Smith's establishment support has narrowed the field of nine candidates, with others below 4%, in this closely contested nomination race amid limited public polling.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$79,654
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "David Brock Smith" at 51%, followed by "Jo Rae Perkins" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $79.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "David Brock Smith" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.