**Close market-implied odds between 29°C (31%) and 30°C (30%) reflect forecast uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover for Taipei on June 16.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance calls for mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum near 29°C under a moist, southwesterly monsoon flow typical of the Meiyu season. Ensemble model spreads arise mainly from differences in the timing of localized thunderstorms, which can either suppress peaks through persistent cloud decks or allow brief clear intervals that push readings to 30°C. Historical June climatology shows average highs near 31–32°C, but recent frontal passages have trended cooler and wetter, keeping trader sentiment tightly balanced between these two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or 31°C thresholds. Updated model runs and CWA briefings ahead of the diurnal heating maximum will likely drive the final repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on June 16?
Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?
29°C 31%
30°C 30%
28°C 14%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
14%
29°C
31%
30°C
30%
31°C
14%
32°C
5%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 31%
30°C 30%
28°C 14%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
25°C or below
$475 Vol.
1%
26°C
$395 Vol.
2%
27°C
$845 Vol.
3%
28°C
$520 Vol.
14%
29°C
$497 Vol.
31%
30°C
$731 Vol.
30%
31°C
$224 Vol.
14%
32°C
$561 Vol.
5%
33°C
$529 Vol.
3%
34°C
$679 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$2,996 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Close market-implied odds between 29°C (31%) and 30°C (30%) reflect forecast uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover for Taipei on June 16.**
Official Central Weather Administration guidance calls for mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum near 29°C under a moist, southwesterly monsoon flow typical of the Meiyu season. Ensemble model spreads arise mainly from differences in the timing of localized thunderstorms, which can either suppress peaks through persistent cloud decks or allow brief clear intervals that push readings to 30°C. Historical June climatology shows average highs near 31–32°C, but recent frontal passages have trended cooler and wetter, keeping trader sentiment tightly balanced between these two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or 31°C thresholds. Updated model runs and CWA briefings ahead of the diurnal heating maximum will likely drive the final repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$8,415End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Close market-implied odds between 29°C (31%) and 30°C (30%) reflect forecast uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover for Taipei on June 16.**
Official Central Weather Administration guidance calls for mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum near 29°C under a moist, southwesterly monsoon flow typical of the Meiyu season. Ensemble model spreads arise mainly from differences in the timing of localized thunderstorms, which can either suppress peaks through persistent cloud decks or allow brief clear intervals that push readings to 30°C. Historical June climatology shows average highs near 31–32°C, but recent frontal passages have trended cooler and wetter, keeping trader sentiment tightly balanced between these two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or 31°C thresholds. Updated model runs and CWA briefings ahead of the diurnal heating maximum will likely drive the final repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,415End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Close market-implied odds between 29°C (31%) and 30°C (30%) reflect forecast uncertainty in afternoon convective timing and cloud cover for Taipei on June 16.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance calls for mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum near 29°C under a moist, southwesterly monsoon flow typical of the Meiyu season. Ensemble model spreads arise mainly from differences in the timing of localized thunderstorms, which can either suppress peaks through persistent cloud decks or allow brief clear intervals that push readings to 30°C. Historical June climatology shows average highs near 31–32°C, but recent frontal passages have trended cooler and wetter, keeping trader sentiment tightly balanced between these two outcomes while assigning lower probability to 28°C or 31°C thresholds. Updated model runs and CWA briefings ahead of the diurnal heating maximum will likely drive the final repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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