Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather currently project a Madrid high of 31°C on June 15, with light winds and possible showers limiting further warming. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31–33°C outcomes, as recent observations show mid-June temperatures running several degrees above the long-term average high near 29°C. Key drivers include a transient Atlantic front introducing modest cooling and increased cloud cover that caps peak insolation, while regional high pressure maintains overall warmth. Short-term model consensus remains stable but carries typical uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C depending on exact timing of any precipitation. Traders appear to be pricing in these official guidance thresholds rather than climatological norms, with limited upside risk for 34°C+ absent a rapid shift in steering patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
32°C 47%
31°C 27%
33°C 21.7%
30°C 4.3%
NUEVO
$25,933 Vol.
NUEVO
$25,933 Vol.
15 jun 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
27%
32°C
47%
33°C
22%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 47%
31°C 27%
33°C 21.7%
30°C 4.3%
NUEVO
$25,933 Vol.
NUEVO
$25,933 Vol.
15 jun 2026
27°C or below
$913 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,522 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,158 Vol.
1%
30°C
$3,393 Vol.
4%
31°C
$2,209 Vol.
27%
32°C
$2,739 Vol.
47%
33°C
$3,232 Vol.
22%
34°C
$4,923 Vol.
3%
35°C
$2,420 Vol.
1%
36°C
$333 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$706 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather currently project a Madrid high of 31°C on June 15, with light winds and possible showers limiting further warming. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31–33°C outcomes, as recent observations show mid-June temperatures running several degrees above the long-term average high near 29°C. Key drivers include a transient Atlantic front introducing modest cooling and increased cloud cover that caps peak insolation, while regional high pressure maintains overall warmth. Short-term model consensus remains stable but carries typical uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C depending on exact timing of any precipitation. Traders appear to be pricing in these official guidance thresholds rather than climatological norms, with limited upside risk for 34°C+ absent a rapid shift in steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$25,933Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather currently project a Madrid high of 31°C on June 15, with light winds and possible showers limiting further warming. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31–33°C outcomes, as recent observations show mid-June temperatures running several degrees above the long-term average high near 29°C. Key drivers include a transient Atlantic front introducing modest cooling and increased cloud cover that caps peak insolation, while regional high pressure maintains overall warmth. Short-term model consensus remains stable but carries typical uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C depending on exact timing of any precipitation. Traders appear to be pricing in these official guidance thresholds rather than climatological norms, with limited upside risk for 34°C+ absent a rapid shift in steering patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$25,933Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather currently project a Madrid high of 31°C on June 15, with light winds and possible showers limiting further warming. This aligns with the market's heavy weighting toward 31–33°C outcomes, as recent observations show mid-June temperatures running several degrees above the long-term average high near 29°C. Key drivers include a transient Atlantic front introducing modest cooling and increased cloud cover that caps peak insolation, while regional high pressure maintains overall warmth. Short-term model consensus remains stable but carries typical uncertainty ranges of 1–2°C depending on exact timing of any precipitation. Traders appear to be pricing in these official guidance thresholds rather than climatological norms, with limited upside risk for 34°C+ absent a rapid shift in steering patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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