Current CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance shows laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates have fallen to 0.5 per 100,000 population in recent weeks, with national admissions projected to remain minimal through late May. This steep seasonal decline after a cumulative rate of 85.2 per 100,000 through mid-April anchors the final figure for Week 19 firmly within the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns once transmission drops below epidemic thresholds. Trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability for this outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds applying real capital to these stable trends. An atypical late-season resurgence exceeding current model consensus or substantial revisions to surveillance data could shift the cumulative rate outside this range, though ensemble forecasts assign low likelihood to such developments before the next FluView release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 19, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 19, 2026?
85–90 97.4%
80–85 1.7%
<80 1.4%
100+ 1.1%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
<80
1%
80–85
2%
85–90
97%
90–95
<1%
95–100
1%
100+
1%
85–90 97.4%
80–85 1.7%
<80 1.4%
100+ 1.1%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
<80
$1,172 Vol.
1%
80–85
$3,030 Vol.
2%
85–90
$1,921 Vol.
97%
90–95
$645 Vol.
<1%
95–100
$862 Vol.
1%
100+
$674 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Current CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance shows laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates have fallen to 0.5 per 100,000 population in recent weeks, with national admissions projected to remain minimal through late May. This steep seasonal decline after a cumulative rate of 85.2 per 100,000 through mid-April anchors the final figure for Week 19 firmly within the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns once transmission drops below epidemic thresholds. Trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability for this outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds applying real capital to these stable trends. An atypical late-season resurgence exceeding current model consensus or substantial revisions to surveillance data could shift the cumulative rate outside this range, though ensemble forecasts assign low likelihood to such developments before the next FluView release.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$8,305End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Current CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance shows laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates have fallen to 0.5 per 100,000 population in recent weeks, with national admissions projected to remain minimal through late May. This steep seasonal decline after a cumulative rate of 85.2 per 100,000 through mid-April anchors the final figure for Week 19 firmly within the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns once transmission drops below epidemic thresholds. Trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability for this outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds applying real capital to these stable trends. An atypical late-season resurgence exceeding current model consensus or substantial revisions to surveillance data could shift the cumulative rate outside this range, though ensemble forecasts assign low likelihood to such developments before the next FluView release.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$8,305End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance shows laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates have fallen to 0.5 per 100,000 population in recent weeks, with national admissions projected to remain minimal through late May. This steep seasonal decline after a cumulative rate of 85.2 per 100,000 through mid-April anchors the final figure for Week 19 firmly within the 85–90 band, consistent with historical patterns once transmission drops below epidemic thresholds. Trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability for this outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds applying real capital to these stable trends. An atypical late-season resurgence exceeding current model consensus or substantial revisions to surveillance data could shift the cumulative rate outside this range, though ensemble forecasts assign low likelihood to such developments before the next FluView release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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