Trader consensus heavily favors zero major space weather events this week, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts showing persistently low solar activity with only a 40% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and negligible risk of stronger X-class flares through May 19. A coronal hole high-speed stream is producing minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions on May 17-18, but current sunspot regions lack the complexity for significant coronal mass ejections or proton events. This aligns with the quiet period following early-May M-class flares, whose glancing effects have already subsided without escalation. Historical patterns near solar maximum suggest such lulls can persist, though traders monitor daily model updates for any sudden active region growth that could shift probabilities toward one or two moderate events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many major Space Weather events this week? (May 17 - May 23)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 17 - May 23)
0 81%
4 43%
2 33%
3 30%
NEW
NEW
May 23, 2026
0
66%
1
28%
2
33%
3
30%
4
43%
5
2%
6+
1%
0 81%
4 43%
2 33%
3 30%
NEW
NEW
May 23, 2026
0
$15 Vol.
66%
1
$0 Vol.
28%
2
$0 Vol.
33%
3
$0 Vol.
30%
4
$50 Vol.
43%
5
$91 Vol.
2%
6+
$133 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors zero major space weather events this week, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts showing persistently low solar activity with only a 40% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and negligible risk of stronger X-class flares through May 19. A coronal hole high-speed stream is producing minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions on May 17-18, but current sunspot regions lack the complexity for significant coronal mass ejections or proton events. This aligns with the quiet period following early-May M-class flares, whose glancing effects have already subsided without escalation. Historical patterns near solar maximum suggest such lulls can persist, though traders monitor daily model updates for any sudden active region growth that could shift probabilities toward one or two moderate events.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$289End Date
May 23, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus heavily favors zero major space weather events this week, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts showing persistently low solar activity with only a 40% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and negligible risk of stronger X-class flares through May 19. A coronal hole high-speed stream is producing minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions on May 17-18, but current sunspot regions lack the complexity for significant coronal mass ejections or proton events. This aligns with the quiet period following early-May M-class flares, whose glancing effects have already subsided without escalation. Historical patterns near solar maximum suggest such lulls can persist, though traders monitor daily model updates for any sudden active region growth that could shift probabilities toward one or two moderate events.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 17, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$289End Date
May 23, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors zero major space weather events this week, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts showing persistently low solar activity with only a 40% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and negligible risk of stronger X-class flares through May 19. A coronal hole high-speed stream is producing minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions on May 17-18, but current sunspot regions lack the complexity for significant coronal mass ejections or proton events. This aligns with the quiet period following early-May M-class flares, whose glancing effects have already subsided without escalation. Historical patterns near solar maximum suggest such lulls can persist, though traders monitor daily model updates for any sudden active region growth that could shift probabilities toward one or two moderate events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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