Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur on average once every few days worldwide, yet their distribution remains highly irregular due to unpredictable stress release along major fault systems and subduction zones. With no elevated activity alerts or recent foreshock sequences reported in high-risk regions as of mid-May 2026, trader consensus has shifted toward zero such events during the May 18–24 window. Historical USGS records confirm that quiet intervals of this length are common, though any sudden swarm in the Pacific Ring of Fire could quickly alter the outlook ahead of the period’s close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 18 - May 24?
0 53%
1 35%
2 12%
3 2.4%
NEW
NEW
May 24, 2026
0
53%
1
35%
2
12%
3
2%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 53%
1 35%
2 12%
3 2.4%
NEW
NEW
May 24, 2026
0
$379 Vol.
53%
1
$90 Vol.
35%
2
$68 Vol.
12%
3
$246 Vol.
2%
4
$162 Vol.
1%
5
$103 Vol.
<1%
>5
$243 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur on average once every few days worldwide, yet their distribution remains highly irregular due to unpredictable stress release along major fault systems and subduction zones. With no elevated activity alerts or recent foreshock sequences reported in high-risk regions as of mid-May 2026, trader consensus has shifted toward zero such events during the May 18–24 window. Historical USGS records confirm that quiet intervals of this length are common, though any sudden swarm in the Pacific Ring of Fire could quickly alter the outlook ahead of the period’s close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,290End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur on average once every few days worldwide, yet their distribution remains highly irregular due to unpredictable stress release along major fault systems and subduction zones. With no elevated activity alerts or recent foreshock sequences reported in high-risk regions as of mid-May 2026, trader consensus has shifted toward zero such events during the May 18–24 window. Historical USGS records confirm that quiet intervals of this length are common, though any sudden swarm in the Pacific Ring of Fire could quickly alter the outlook ahead of the period’s close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,290End Date
May 24, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring by the USGS indicates that earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur on average once every few days worldwide, yet their distribution remains highly irregular due to unpredictable stress release along major fault systems and subduction zones. With no elevated activity alerts or recent foreshock sequences reported in high-risk regions as of mid-May 2026, trader consensus has shifted toward zero such events during the May 18–24 window. Historical USGS records confirm that quiet intervals of this length are common, though any sudden swarm in the Pacific Ring of Fire could quickly alter the outlook ahead of the period’s close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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